Iran has agreed to a nuclear fuel swap – a deal that will require Tehran to send a portion of its uranium abroad in exchange for 20 per cent enriched nuclear fuel. The agreement, brokered by Turkey and Brazil, has been met with mixed reactions. Has Iran managed to split the international community? And is it an attempt to stave off further sanctions?

Turkey’s prime minister declined to support President Barack Obama’s push for tough new sanctions against Iran but said his country was willing to act as a mediator in the diplomatic standoff over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Go to CNN.

NIGDE, Turkey — Light snow was falling when the two young men set out on horseback for the border to flee Iran. By the time they were deep in the mountains, it had become a blinding blizzard, the temperature had dropped below freezing, and they were barely alive.

Hesam Misaghi and Sepehr Atefi were joining what has become an exodus of dissidents fleeing Iran’s political turmoil. For them that meant a harrowing journey through the country’s rugged northwest in the dead of winter, with the help of Kurdish smugglers.

At a river crossing, the ice broke beneath them and their horses stumbled in, soaking the two with freezing water.

“There was no feeling in my legs and hands,” recalled Misaghi, a tall, wiry 21-year-old. “I felt drunk. I didn’t know where I was. I was laughing from pain.”

Atefi, 20, spotted a van from a distance, grabbed Misaghi’s arm and dragged him toward it through the snow. “There was no life left in me to move forward, but we had to reach the highway,” he said.

The men, both Iranian human rights reporters, reached the van, begged a ride and made it to safety in Turkey.

At least 4,200 Iranians have fled their homeland since disputed presidential elections in June, according to a list compiled by activist Aida Saadat, who herself slipped across the border into Turkey in December. These refugees have scattered to the United States, Europe and Gulf nations like the United Arab Emirates.

Most of all, they have come to Turkey – around 1,150 of them, according to the U.N. refugee agency – taking advantage of the porous border and Turkey’s policy of not requiring a visa. Most of the new arrivals fled for political reasons, including those who took part in opposition protests after the vote. They bring the number of Iranians in Turkey to 4,440, as of February – including “undesirables” in the eyes of the clerical regime, such as homosexuals or members of the Bahai religion.

The danger these Iranians face back home is clear. A month after Atefi and Misaghi’s January escape, police raided their homes in the central Iranian city of Isfahan. Among the charges against them: “moharebeh,” or “waging war against God,” a crime punishable by death.

Police arrested their friend and colleague, Navid Khanjani, who was supposed to have fled with them but changed his mind at the last minute. With Khanjani’s arrest, eight people in the independent Committee of Human Rights Reporters have been jailed, and three remain in prison and could face execution.

In Turkey, the refugees are safer, but they live in limbo. Almost all brought little money and cannot work because of Turkish restrictions, so they cram into small, coal-heated apartments with minimal furniture.

Many Iranian refugees hope the UNHCR will arrange resettlement for them in the United States or Europe – a wait that could take years, as the refugee agency is also dealing with thousands of Iraqis who have fled here from their own wartorn homeland in recent years.

Go to Washington Post.

(Reuters) – Differences over Iran and Turkey’s bid to join the European Union will dominate talks when German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits Turkey on Monday.

Merkel’s two-day talks in Ankara will focus on Iran, the Middle East peace process, Turkey’s bid to join the EU and the two countries’ business and cultural ties.

On Saturday however both she and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, whose country is currently a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, laid out different approaches for dealing with international efforts to rein in Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

“If Iran does not in the end show transparency over the question of nuclear energy, we must also consider sanctions,” Merkel said in a weekly video address. “This will be a topic of discussion in Ankara.”

See Also:

AFP:  Turkish PM rejects new sanctions against Iran: report

Go to Reuters.

WP:  Iraqi election results pointing up the country’s deep divides

The emerging results from last week’s parliamentary elections have made clear that Iraq remains a dangerously polarized nation, with deep regional and sectarian schisms that could widen as the U.S. military draws down.

The race to become Iraq’s next prime minister is so tight that it remains unclear who will come out ahead. The country is caught between two men: Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite who became the candidate of choice for Sunni Arabs, and incumbent Nouri al-Maliki, an Islamist Shiite who has recast himself as a nationalist while still promising to serve the once-oppressed Shiite majority.

No matter which man’s slate wins more seats, diplomats and Iraqi officials say the post-election jockeying to build a governing coalition could give rise to new conflicts in Iraq’s Shiite-dominated south and the Sunni-dominated west, with the potential to unravel hard-won security gains.

Telegraph:  Iraq election: Sectarianism threatens Iraq’s future

Al-Maliki is already courting potential allies, but his sectarian attitude and his close ties with the Iranian regime raises deep concerns about his ability to project himself as a leader of all Iraqis. The fact that Al-Maliki was at the centre of a pre-election campaign banning significant Sunni figures from running for election, whilst his election posters concentrated more on the de-Baathification of Iraq than on leading the nation towards freedom and prosperity under a democratic government help to underline that point.

Times:  Tehran accused of arming Taleban with weapons and explosives

The Iranian Government has been accused by Afghan and Western officials of delivering tonnes of weaponry to the Taleban, including plastic explosives, mortars, grenades and technical manuals.

Weapons and documents shown to Channel 4 News indicate that more than ten tonnes of weapons have been intercepted at Iran’s desert border with Afghanistan in the past year, with a tonne and a half recovered in the past week.

The reports come as General David Petraeus, the head of US Central Command, warned the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Iran also provided a base for al-Qaeda operatives. Afghanistan’s intelligence agency estimates that about 60 per cent of the weaponry it has intercepted from Iran has been supplied by the Iranian Government rather than black market dealers.

In a report on Iran’s weapons smuggling to the Taleban — to be aired by Channel 4 News this evening — one Afghan Taleban commander claims that the Iranian border is assuming greater importance than that into Pakistan.

Channel 4:  Exclusive: Iran supplies weapons to Taliban

Channel 4 News can reveal the Taliban insurgency against British and American forces is being supported by Iranian weapons smuggled over the border including mines, mortars and plastic explosives.

The exclusive images and documents show, for the first time, the full extent of Iranian support for the Taliban in the shape of tonnes of weapons of the type being used against UK troops in Helmand province.

Despite the millions of dollars being spent by the international community to ensure cross-border security between Iran and Afghanistan, Channel 4 News has been shown vast hauls of weaponry which Afghan security services have told us are just a fraction of hardware intercepted from Iran on their way to the Taliban.

They claim it shows the true extent of direct support from the Iranian government for the insurgency.

The Afghan border with Iran is almost 1000km long and is incredibly difficult to police. The border town of Eslam Ghalah, in the Western Afghanistan province of Herat, is a key checkpoint for goods and human traffic entering and leaving Afghanistan.

Inside Iran:  Turkey’s Warm Ties with Iran: A Brief History

The 1990s were marked by hostile relations between Iran and Turkey, which was the direct outcome of Turkish foreign policy elite’s conviction that Iran was supporting the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) and had a campaign to export Islamic revolution to Turkey.

Iran was perceived as posing an existential threat to the survival of the organizing ideology of the state, secularism, and the territorial integrity of the country. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, however, there has been a notable softening in Turkey’s foreign policy vis-à-vis Iran. Since it came to power in 2002, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has adopted a new policy approach, which aims to minimize the problems in Turkey’s neighboring regions and develop political and economic relations to foster peace and stability in the region. Under the current government, the trade between Turkey and Iran has increased more than six-fold, hitting $7.5 billion in 2007.

Reuters:  Syria’s link to Hezbollah clouds honeymoon with U.S.

Emboldened by its strong ties with Iran and Turkey, Syria is ignoring U.S. demands that it stop backing Hezbollah, despite the risk that this will spoil its rapprochement with Washington and raise regional tensions.

FP:  Hezbollah’s Extreme Makeover

The fusion of leisure, religion, and politics has become an indispensable strategy for Hezbollah, particularly following its 2006 war with Israel. As the party reconstructed South Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs (known as Dahiyeh) following the conflict, it built — and encouraged investors to build — entertainment venues that cater to Shiites of all social and economic classes.

After the 2006 war, Iranian money flowed in massive quantities to Hezbollah. This was not charity: The Islamic Republic of Iran was determined to ensure that its client could solidify its standing within Lebanon’s Shiite community and reconstitute its fighting strength before the next round against Israel. Hezbollah used these funds to compensate the Shiites who lost relatives, homes, and businesses during the war.

Mohammad Ali Mokalled, a Shiite writer and a candidate who ran in opposition to Hezbollah in the party’s stronghold of Nabatiyeh in last June’s parliamentary elections, said that Hezbollah used the money coming from Iran to buy people’s allegiance — and it worked. “If you ask anyone in the south today if they are afraid of an upcoming war with Israel, they tell you yes, but they also say that they would support Hezbollah no matter what happens,” he said.

BBC:  Netanyahu’s brother-in-law calls Obama ‘anti-Semitic’

In an interview with Israel Army Radio, Mr Ben-Artzi said his brother-in-law should learn from previous Israeli prime ministers.

“Once the Americans tried to intervene in anything related to Jerusalem we told them one simple word: ‘No’,” he explained.

Mr Obama, he added, not only disliked Mr Netanyahu personally, but “dislikes the people of Israel”.

“For 20 years, Obama sat with Reverend Jeremiah Wright, who is anti-Semitic, anti-Israeli, and anti-Jewish.”

He said it was clear Mr Obama agreed with Rev Wright because he had remained a member of his congregation.

“Think about it. If you had heard of someone who for 20 years sat in church and heard anti-Semitic sermons and didn’t get up to leave after two weeks, wouldn’t you think he identifies with it?” he asked.

“As a politician running for presidency he had to hide it, but it comes out every time and I think we just have to say it plainly – there is an anti-Semitic president in America,” he said.

“Unfortunately this creates a difficult situation for Israel, but we will never give up our deepest interests – Jerusalem and our ties with it.”

Economist:  Where did all the love go?

Friends have spats, but this seems to be more than that. America has not simply accepted Mr Netanyahu’s prompt apology. Opinion in the administration is said to be divided. Mr Biden himself and many State Department officials, together with George Mitchell, who was to have supervised the now-stalled proximity talks, advised cooling things down. But, whether out of rage or calculation, Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton preferred to escalate.

On television last Sunday David Axelrod, the president’s chief policy adviser, called Israel’s announcement an “affront” and an “insult”—extraordinary language in exchanges with an ally. And notwithstanding that “unshakeable bond”, Mrs Clinton is insisting that Mr Netanyahu must comply with a string of fresh demands. These reportedly include shelving the building plans, avoiding new provocations, agreeing to talk about “core issues” such as Jerusalem in the proximity talks, and offering a new concession, the details of which are not yet clear, to the Palestinian side.

…In testimony to a Senate committee this week, General David Petraeus, hero of Iraq and America’s commander in the wider Middle East, said the unsolved conflict in Palestine was fomenting anti-Americanism in the wider region. An obvious point, perhaps; but yet another reason why the love is draining out of a special relationship.

CFR:  Enemies Into Friends: How the United States Can Court Its Adversaries

NPR:  Foreign Policy: Changing Views Of Arab Youth

WSJ:  [Turkey] A Nation of Conspiracies The same can be said of Iran and Iranians.  Too often, we are fatalistic, project our own mistakes onto others, don’t believe in self-criticism, and wallow in self-pity. The solution to all this is transparency which only comes with a genuine democracy.

Conspiracies flourish when citizens fear punishment for open political expression, when power is seen as illegitimate, and when people have no access to healthy channels of influence. They give rise inevitably to counterconspiracies that fuel the paranoia and enmity, a self-reinforcing cycle. Throughout Turkey is the pervasive feeling that no one beyond family can be trusted.

AFP:  Abbas blames Iran for blocking Palestinian reconciliation Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas lashed out at Iran on Friday, blaming Tehran for being behind the latest failure to reconcile his secular Fatah movement with its Isalamist rival Hamas. “Iran doesn’t want Hamas to sign the Cairo reconciliation document,” Abbas said during a meeting in the Tunisian capital. Fatah and Hamas struggled for months to reach a unity deal under Egyptian mediation, but the efforts collapsed late last year when Hamas refused to agree to a proposal that was signed by Fatah. Abbas said that while Hamas’ leaders had initially indicated their approval of the document, they later began putting forth excuses to refuse to sign. The Fatah leader said his goal was to “pull our people out from Iranian tutelage”

Diplomatic contact between Iran and Turkey has increased in frequency and intensity in recent months, starting with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s visit to Iran in October 2009. Concurrently with Erdogan’s visit, Iran announced that Turkey was investing $4 billion into Iran’s South Pars gas field, which holds one of the largest gas reserves in the world. Shortly after Erdogan’s visit, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated that there are “no limitations to increasing ties” with Turkey. Since then, a plethora of meetings at all levels of government have occurred between the two nations, marking a significant increase in bilateral agreements on political and economic issues.

Many of these meetings have focused on economic cooperation and strengthening the financial interdependence of the two nations, especially in recent weeks with the inaugural meeting of the Developing 8 (D-8) economic consortium in Tehran. The D-8 consists of eight developing nations with largely Muslim populations—Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Nigeria and Turkey—and is intended to foster greater economic ties and facilitate development of vital industries, especially in the energy and manufacturing sectors. The next meeting, in 2011, will be held in Turkey. Go to Inside Iran.

Turkish police arrested the former heads of the Navy and Air Force along with several other senior military officers yesterday in a sweep against top brass linked to a coup plan against the Islamist-leaning Government.

The existence of Sledgehammer, a detailed plot hatched in 2002-03, came to light last month. The arrests could be a spectacular milestone in the democratic history of Turkey, where four previous governments have been ousted by the military but no one has come to trial.

“This morning our security forces began a detention process,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister, said during an official visit to Spain.

By the end of the day almost 50 people — including Ibrahim Firtina, the former Air Force commander, and Ozden Ornek, the former Navy commander, five other senior former generals and seven serving soldiers — had been detained in a series of early-morning raids in nine cities. They were taken to Istanbul for questioning by anti-terrorism police. Go to Times UK.

Iran has not been deterred from its march to the nuclear bomb, and one-time ally Turkey is drawing closer to the side of Islamic radicals and further from Israel and the West, OC Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin warned on Tuesday at the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

“In the past, Turkey had ambitions of becoming closer to the West, beyond its acceptance into NATO,” Yadlin said. “They wanted to be part of the European market, and they thought that relations with Israel would help them advance in the American market. But then they received a cold shoulder from the Europeans and did not achieve what they wanted. In light of that, they changed their policies and are currently drawing away from secularism and going in a more radical direction. There are still joint strategic interests shared byTurkey and Israel, but it is not the same strategic proximity that they once shared.” Go to Jerusalem Post.

IND:  Is Turkey trying to negotiate a better deal from the E.U. or has Turkey made such a dramatic shift in how it views the geopolitics of the region?

Turkey’s prime minister accused Israel on Monday of threatening peace in the region and using disproportionate force against Palestinians.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged Israel to stop violating Lebanon’s airspace and territorial waters. He also called on the U.N. Security Council to put same pressure on Israel regarding nuclear arms as it does on Iran.

”We can never remain silent in the face of Israel’s attitude. … It has disproportionate power and it is using that at will while refusing to abide by U.N. resolutions. We can never accept this picture,” Erdogan said. ”These steps threaten global peace.”

He spoke a joint news conference with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Hariri described Israel as an enemy that threatens Lebanon’s security.

”Today, Israel continues its violation of our airspace and waters,” Hariri said.

Erdogan promised to support Lebanon’s case against Israel at the United Nations. Turkey is a temporary member of the Security Council.

Discussing the possibility of war to make Iran drop its nuclear program, Erdogan said, ”The region cannot accept a new Iraq syndrome.” Turkey has long defended Iran’s right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful use.

”Those who are warning Iran over nuclear weapons are not making the same warnings to Israel,” Erdogan said. ”Five permanent members of the Security Council must be just. Israel has not denied the existence of its nuclear arsenal; on the contrary it has admitted it.” Go to NY Times.

Many of Iran’s political dissidents have fled to Turkey, since the disputed presidential election in June and subsequent government crackdown. While many bloggers say they can continue reporting on Iran’s anti-government protests from Turkey, they say Iranian intelligence agents cross the border, and harass them even in exile. Go to NPR.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan balked at supporting new economic sanctions against Iran after a White House meeting with President Barack Obama Monday, arguing diplomacy aimed at ending Tehran’s nuclear program needed more time. Go to WSJ.

U.S. President Barack Obama says he and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan have agreed that one of the most important issues the two NATO allies need to resolve is Iran’s nuclear program. Go to Radio Free Europe.

Turkey’s attempts to develop a strategic partnership with Iran are causing concern in America and are likely to dominate talks between its leader and President Barack Obama during a US visit that starts today.

One man who fled to Turkey told a newspaper last week that an Iranian agent had threatened to kill him in an encounter at his private accommodation. He said: “As I was going into my flat, a man put his hand on my shoulder and, looking into my eyes, told me, ‘either you are going to shut up or we will shut you up’.”

A foreign diplomat based in Turkey said it was “inconceivable” that the CIA would use Turkey to engineer the defection of a senior Iranian official, as it did with Brig Ali Reza Asghari, a deputy defence minister who fled in 2007. Go to Telegraph.

…Fortunately, Erdogan’s friendship with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad enjoys less popular support. And though moderates decry the friendship, fringe rightists and leftists applaud it. Last June, both moderate Islamists and moderate secularists embraced the Iranian protesters as kindred spirits. To secularists, many of whom view Erdogan as little more than a Turkish Ahmadinejad, the protesters were fighting against theocracy. To Islamists, the protesters were fighting for democracy, with the ayatollahs cast in the authoritarian role of the Turkish military. After President Abdullah Gul and Erdogan rushed to congratulate Ahmadinejad on his victory, several columnists in the reliably pro-government Zaman newspaper broke with the party line to condemn the brutality on the streets of Tehran. Go to Foreign Policy.