FP:  Rafsanjani Makes His Move

Iran’s most watched man has finally made his move. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president and the country’s most skilled political operator, had been sending mixed signals since the contentious June election, one day appearing sympathetic with the opposition and the next declaring his loyalty to the regime. Throughout this long political dance, both Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the opposition “green movement” appreciated that securing the allegiance of Rafsanjani, a key player in Iranian politics since the Islamic Revolution, would represent a significant victory.

Now, Rafsanjani appears to have decided to place his bets with Khamenei. And it turns out that Rafsanjani’s cultivated reputation for independence might be exactly what the supreme leader needs right now.

Zamaneh:  Iranian reformist group issues government failing report card

Iranian reformist group, Mujahedin of the Islamic Revolution issued a statement at the threshold of the Iranian New Year describing the events of the passing year as tragic adding that Ahmadinejad government has deprived people both from freedom and economic prosperity.

Khordaad88:  Mousavi’s Speech to Members of the Islamic Participation Front

Our Constitution evidently stresses and concentrates on the right to organize social gatherings and form [social/political] parties and organizations. Some people mistakenly assume that such organizations are gifts awarded to the people by the government. We mistakenly believe that these organizations should be shaped by the government and delivered to the people while this, [in fact], is a social demand and its prevalence results in a healthy society. The government should not ban these activities. If the government did not place such severe pressure on people and allowed them to be politically active and form organizations—without fear of prosecution—then there would be no need to have demonstrations in the streets. Furthermore, if the government did not use such severe violence and trample on people’s rights, then everyone would remain calm and peaceful during those demonstrations. Unfortunately, over the past nine months, the authorities have been extremely violent towards the protesters and have ignored their rights—this has cost the people dearly. They have truly paid a great price in the violence that we have witnessed.

Rooz:  Democracy Is Not Extractable from Islam

Dr. Soroush. You said you are politically secular.  The main issue seems to be about the separation of church and state anyway.  So what is the disagreement among our intellectuals about?

Abdolkarim Soroush (Soroush):  In reality there is no disagreement.  Perhaps some want to create one.  I introduced the concept of “political and philosophical secularism” for this very reason, to resolve any apparent disagreement and to demonstrate in what sense we are secular, and in agreement with others, and in what sense we are not secular.  But the issue that has emerged, especially outside the country, is that a lot of people who claim to be seculars, are secular in belief too; meaning they have no belief in religion or faith.  Of course, they are free to have such beliefs, but when only those people become the defenders of secularism, secularism takes on a dangerous meaning for the Iranian society.  There is the impression that secularism means denouncing religion and faith.  This delusion and error must be corrected.

TB:  What’s next–the ‘Persian’ Gulf?

The collective denunciation of Chaharshanbeh Souri is clearly a measure taken to ensure that the authority of the Islamic Republic remains unchallenged. The regime can pretend to have the backing of “the people” for only so long. When every significant celebration or other public event in the country is turned into a protest during which ever greater numbers of Iranians are arrested, the legitimacy of the regime’s actions inevitably falls under question by even its staunchest supporters.

For now, the attack on Persian custom is limited to Chaharshanbeh Souri. There is, as yet, no sign that officials intend to impose a ban on all such traditions — they have had 31 years of opportunity if that was the primary goal. In the words of Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi, “The Chaharshanbeh Souri ceremony is a superstitious act and baseless, and pious and sensible Muslims will stay away from it. But many other Eid [Nowruz] festivities are reasonable, beneficial, and good.”

However, the rulers of the Islamic Republic will stop at nothing to remain in power, as the events of recent months have proved. Survival is the bottom line. If the survival of the regime means banning an ancient festival to prevent the opposition from raising its voice, so be it. If, in the future, maintaining their hold on power necessitates giving up the “Persian” in the Persian Gulf, it is not hard to imagine that they will readily find religious justification for informing us that the Persian Gulf was Arab all along. In the Islamic Republic, the ends always justify the means.

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates—U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates asked Persian Gulf leaders to press China to back stronger sanctions on Iran, a sign of the Obama administration’s efforts to win diplomatic support for its harder-line stance toward Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Mr. Gates, wrapping up a five-day trip to Afghanistan and the Middle East, used dinner meetings with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahayan of Abu Dhabi to make the case for increasing the economic pressure on Iran, whose growing regional influence is a major cause of concern in many Arab capitals.

The Obama administration spent most of its first year seeking closer diplomatic ties with Iran, but those outreach efforts were largely rebuffed. With Tehran showing no sign of abandoning its nuclear program, the White House has shifted toward trying to push a tough sanctions package through the United Nations Security Council.

Mr. Gates, speaking to reporters here, said he hoped Saudi Arabia would work to use its economic leverage over China to persuade Beijing to drop its opposition to the sanctions package. China, a veto-wielding member of the Security Council, has to date refused to endorse fresh sanctions on Iran.

The kingdom is the largest exporter of oil to China in the world, and Saudi Arabia buys considerable amounts of munitions, natural resources and consumer products from China. The defense chief said he detected a newfound Saudi “willingness” to use those commercial dealings to push Beijing to distance itself from Tehran.

“What I would like for them to do because of the nature of their economic relationship is to say that it’s important to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia that China be supportive of the U.N. Security Council resolution,” Mr. Gates said Thursday night.

China has emerged as the biggest stumbling block to the White House’s hopes of winning U.N. support for imposing targeted sanctions on the Iranian government, as well as Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Russia also wields a veto and has long been skeptical of sanctions, but Mr. Gates said Moscow was “already there” when it came to the new sanctions package.

“There is an understanding that we have to try this, that this is the next step,” Mr. Gates said. “The engagement policy served to expose the Iranian government to the rest of the world.”

Despite the American optimism, it is far from clear that Persian Gulf nations will ultimately be willing to use their soft power over Beijing to drum up Chinese support for tougher sanctions.

Officials throughout the Persian Gulf have long said they will abide by any new sanctions regime established by the United Nations that has the force of international law. But Dubai and the rest of the United Arab Emirates have resisted pressure from Washington to curb their extensive trade ties with Iran, in line with U.S. sanctions already in place against Iranian companies and government officials.

U.A.E. officials argue that the small nation located only a few dozen miles from the Iranian mainland should remain neutral in the international struggle to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Diplomats here say that they abide by existing U.N. sanctions against Iran banning the sale of so-called dual use technologies that could be used to enhance Tehran’s nuclear program, but haven’t indicated a willingness to go much further. Go to WSJ.

Cherie Culle/DOD, via Associated Press

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates visited the Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al Nahyan Mosque in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Thursday.

NYT:  Gates to Discuss Iran With Emirates Leaders

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates arrived here Thursday to consult with the United Arab Emirates about military defenses and the growing unease in the Persian Gulf over possible missile attacks by Iran.

Mr. Gates, who is a crucial part of the Obama administration’s intensifying campaign to put more pressure on Iran, was to meet with the crown prince of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammad bin Zayyed al Nuhayyan, who is also the deputy commander of the country’s armed forces. The two are expected to discuss the United Arab Emirates’ agreement to accelerate the deployment here of two American-made Patriot missile batteries, which are capable of shooting down short-range offensive missiles.

Telegraph:  Gulf states wary of Iran’s nukes and of sanctions

Gates told King Abdullah, the Crown Prince and Defence Minister Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, and other top security officials that Iran had “largely rebuffed” US overtures for a conciliatory dialogue, and that Washington was now focused on ramping up pressure on Tehran, according to a US defence official.

Gates was only the latest of several high level US visitors, including Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, and Steven Chu, the energy secretary, who have pounded the path to Riyadh to sell Saudi leaders on more pressure on Tehran.

But Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states remain dubious about whether heightened economic sanctions would be supported by enough countries to be effective, and whether they would have the intended impact on Tehran.

“We have a shared interest in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power,” said Mustafa Alani, research director at the Gulf Research Centre, a Dubai think tank.

However, he said: “We don’t recognise economic sanctions as going to change the Iranians’ mind. If there are sanctions, it will accelerate their nuclear programme.”

The support of the Gulf states is crucial, both to put real economic pressure on Iran – through trade and financial measures – and to ensure no disruption to global energy needs by a change to Iranian oil exports.