.

Free Iran:  Based on the quotes below from the Economist, does this mean that the Green movement is now being held back by Mousavi & even Karroubi – people who want to work within the confides of the Islamic’s republic’s repressive, bankrupt and failed constitution – and people who believe that Khomeini was somehow a democrat and a humanitarian?  Up to now, one could have given these gentlemen the benefit of the doubt – despite their history and in the belief that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.  But going forward, such reasoning and deference to these gentlemen becomes increasingly more difficult.

Given these difficulties and as this site has repeatedly argued in the past, for the Iranian people to become free, the US needs to help cut off the regime’s oil income. Without its oil income, the regime will be nothing but a paper tiger. The US needs to start with unilateral sanctions against the insurance and shipping companies that help the regime sell Iran’s oil. It’s the oil income, stupid! (For those that may not be aware, “It’s the oil income, stupid!” is a play on Bill Clinton’s 1992 comment that “It’s the economy, stupid.”  I don’t mean disrespect to anyone.)

From the Economist:

…Mr Bakiyev made two decisive mistakes. First, he had almost all the country’s opposition leaders arrested by the morning of April 7th, which left the protesting crowds without any sense of direction or moderating influence. The leaders were almost all released later in the day but by then it was too late. Second, he miscalculated by using brutal force to hang on to power, which ultimately made it impossible for him to stay. The police were also clearly outnumbered by protesters.  Free Iran:  Not sure about either arguments and especially the second one.  The regime in Tehran is a lot more competent about using force than the government of  Kyrgyzstan.

…But the abrupt change in Kyrgyzstan is also being closely watched in the rest of Central Asia. This was the second time that as few as 5,000 demonstrators succeeded in overthrowing an unwanted government in Kyrgyzstan—an example that the no-less authoritarian neighbours fear could be emulated elsewhere. For the Kyrgyz people, though, it is an opportunity to get things right the second time around.

Monday night in the city of Karaj, a car blew up.  It was carrying several members of the Revolutionary Guards’ “foreign legion,” non-Iranian Arabs being trained for operations against Americans and our friends and allies in the region.  The explosion was enormous.  “They used too much explosives,” an Iranian friend commented.  Neither he nor I knows who carried out the attack, but it is only one of many.  I haven’t seen a report about it in the press, but then there is no press these days in Iran; the papers — those that hadn’t already been shut down by the censors — have been silenced during the Norooz holiday.

But the Iranian people have not been silenced. In addition to assassinations such as the spectacular explosion in Karaj, there have been more joyful confrontations with security forces across the country. There may not be newspapers, but there are videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxlaH9wDMPY&feature=channel (from Kermanshah)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ohv8GhrEbNw&feature=channel (from Khoram Abad)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2i0ri-pV7Q&feature=player_embedded# (from Abadan)

http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/2010/03/tears-determination-and-joy-greet-new.html (from Shiraz and Tehran)

There are others, but you get the picture.  It’s an ongoing revolt.

…I do not believe in historical inevitability, but I do think that the Iranian regime’s days are numbered.  Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and the new tycoons of the Revolutionary Guards are now objects of derision in the streets of the country.  During the recent Fire Festival, an Iranian wryly said to me that Khamenei’s official photograph must be the most popular picture of all time, since it was the principal component of the bonfires.  The supreme leader is widely considered to be the supreme loser.

When the regime comes down, the leaders of a free Iran will look back and ask themselves why no one in the West helped them when the regime was beating, torturing and executing them.  What will our leaders say? Go to original article.

Leverett and Mann Leverett’s argument in the New York Times last week, that there will not ultimately be a revolution in Iran is misguided. Their case is not only divorced from facts on the ground, but based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the present crisis.

If the Iranian regime is so breathtakingly popular, why can it not afford to give the streets to the opposition for a single day so the world can see just how small their numbers are?

Even the Shah’s government did not attack demonstrators during Ashura, let alone throw them off bridges, run them over with police car or shoot them. This is why Banisadr recently sent a message to Iran’s armed forces and argued that ‘the blood shed by the regime [on Ashura] should tell you that this regime had condemned itself to collapse… When a regime sheds blood on Ashura in the name of Islam, it has to go, and go it will.

The main instigators of social revolutions are dictatorial regimes, which leave people with no options other than total submission or revolution. In 1979, the Shah became the negative leader of the revolution in this way. Khamenei takes this title in 2010. The next Iranian revolution has already begun, and the world had better to come to terms with it. Go to Huffington Post.

IND:  In much of the analysis of what’s happening in Iran today, the economic reasons behind the unrest is not mentioned as often as it should.  Unemployment, inflation and corruption that benefits the elite while deprives the people of their fair share of the oil revenues are major sources of the people’s frustrations.

In contrast to the protests last summer, the opposition has lost its fear of the regime’s thugs. Instead of cowering to avoid government forces during the demonstrations, the rebels are now fighting back, and instead of relenting, they are becoming more radical in their demands. Many are no longer interested in reforming the theocracy, but rather in abolishing it altogether.

But the government’s efforts to deter the protesters are becoming less and less effective. Each new wave of violence coming from the regime only heightens the popularity of the protest movement, which no longer consists solely of younger supporters of the reform movement from the middle and upper classes. Now formerly apolitical shopkeepers and the unemployed are risking direct confrontation with the government’s gangs of thugs, and even the elderly are joining the protests.

In major cities, the movement can draw from an enormous reservoir of people with poor prospects. Almost half of Iran’s working-age population is now unemployed, and even the official unemployment rate lies at 25 percent.

In Isfahan, the protest movement has gained particularly strong support in the working class neighborhood of Hossein Abad, and in Tehran more and more disgruntled residents of the city’s poor southern neighborhoods are joining the street protests.

Despite initial reports of insubordination among members of the Revolutionary Guard, the regime still has more clout than the protesters. The Pasdaran comprises 125,000 armed troops, and the special units that are particularly loyal to the regime are estimated to include between 5,000 and 10,000 men. The regime’s militias count at least a million members. Roughly 90,000 members of the Basij are considered reliable and prepared to engage in street fighting. To enhance the operational capability of government forces, the militias have been placed under the command of the Pasdaran, of which Khamenei is the commander-in-chief.

The Islamists know that the downfall of Khamenei would spell the end of a corrupt system of patronage from which the conservative elite, many mullahs and, most of all, the large military-industrial complex consisting of the Pasdaran and Basij have profited handsomely for more than 30 years. Go to Spiegel.

Watching the events unfold, I am taken back 15 years, when I was a student activist in medical school. In my first speech on campus, on Jan. 7, 1994, I simply said that in our country we don’t have freedom the way the Supreme Leader says we do.

For saying this, I was sentenced to three years in prison. None of my schoolmates dared talk to me anymore; a combination of fear and religious beliefs had made even thinking ill of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a taboo.

Today, when I see Iranians fearlessly shouting “Death to Khamenei” and “Khamenei is a murderer” with police and members of the Basij militia present, I know that the Green revolution has found its correct course.

I know it is strong enough not only to survive, but to succeed.

The only question now is how long it will take. Three elements can affect this time line. The first is Iranians inside Iran, who are already doing their part. The second is a coalition including different Iranian opposition groups to synchronize future protests and help shape the foundations of a new democratic and secular government upon the downfall of the Islamic Republic. The third is Western governments, who must impose hard sanctions on the regime to dramatically reduce the inflow of money, thus freeing the region and the world of a tyrannical and dangerous government. Go to original article.

But when violence is extreme, anger long pent up and regimes lose their nerve, a tipping point is reached and revolution sweeps the land. Has Iran reached that point?

The classic revolutions, those that changed world affairs, have come when the dam of repression could no longer hold. The grievances of the French peasants under the ancien régime or of the workers in tsarist Russia had been building up for years. It was only when an attempt was made to accommodate their demands that the would-be revolutionaries were emboldened to strike. The French aristocracy lost its repressive nerve and the mob turned on them. The Tsar abdicated, Alexander Kerensky’s Provisional Government proposed widespread reform — and the Bolsheviks seized their chance. Political concessions are often the harbinger of revolution.

In those countries where a threatened government has redoubled its repression or called up troops to shoot and arrest demonstrators, uprisings have often fizzled out. Saddam Hussein faced wholesale revolt in southern Iraq in 1991 after his defeat in the Gulf War but the Revolutionary Guard put down the rebels with such ferocity that the cowed Shia population was brutalised into submission. Saddam and his regime survived.

Extreme and prolonged brutality can usually stave off revolution for a long time. The Stalinist dynasty in North Korea has survived longer than outsiders expected, despite starvation and economic collapse.

Iran’s leaders do not have the advantage of three generations of autocracy. Indeed, their own example, of fomenting a revolution against the Shah, is a living memory to millions of Iranians and encouragement to their opponents to do the same. The tipping point may come sooner than it has in uprisings elsewhere. Go to Times UK.

Residents of the Iranian capital speak out as protests continue six months after the disputed presidential elections.

Meshkat Nourahmadi, 45, nurse

“I have seen patients with bullets in their chests, bullets in their legs, bullets in their heads. Everybody is talking about the violence, whether you are at work, in a taxi or at a family gathering. Something has changed in this country. I don’t think this is just about fraud in the election. It’s about the blood that has been spilled and people who have been raped or tortured or harassed by this government.” Go to Guardian.

For one middle-class Tehrani who grew up during the revolution, much of this is about young Iranians asserting themselves, as they did in extraordinary scenes of exuberance and hope before the “stolen” election. “What a lot of people are asking for is what their parents asked for 30 years ago. The difference is that their parents trusted their elders and the keepers of the revolutionary faith to do the right thing. Young people don’t have that trust any more.”

“Marg bar diktatur” (Death to dictatorship), they chanted in their thousands, waving green banners and posters behind high canvas screens tied to the railings as basij miltiamen and revolutionary guards prowled the streets outside.

Some held up Iranian flags with the symbol of the Islamic republic cut out of the middle. Others, masked against teargas, burned pictures of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Khomeini’s heir as the once inviolate supreme leader, made V-signs or taunted basiji with banknotes – a contemptuous dig at the regime’s hired thugs. “Liar basiji, where is your student card?” went another slogan – meant to scare off militiamen using fake IDs.

Monday’s clashes, replicated as far afield as Tabriz, Mashhad and Shiraz, were the latest escalation in the conflict between the Iranian government and opposition, still fighting over the outcome of June’s disputed presidential elections.

“Iran has totally changed since June,” said Poorya Farmarzi, a student. “Now you can smell blood when you go out, you can smell teargas, you can smell injustice. This won’t end soon.” Go to Guardian.

Many Tehran residents who oppose President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are taking a harder line against Iran’s leaders and want to remove them from power, several protesters said. Others in the opposition movement favor gradual change and caution against pressing extreme demands.

…But many protesters have gone beyond questioning the election outcome, more than a dozen opposition supporters said in interviews. Fearing retribution, all insisted on being identified only by their first names.

“I don’t want to save the Islamic republic,” said Reza, a 28-year-old engineer. “I want a total change, something close to a revolution.” Other interviewees made similar comments, saying that extreme violence unleashed by the government against protesters has hardened their views about Iran’s leaders.

“They will not change,” said Mohammad, a computer specialist who was fired from his job for supporting the demonstrations. “We have no other option than removing them from power.” He added, “But I really don’t know how we should do that.” Go to Washington Post.

…The Obama team has long called itself pragmatic, open to altering its policies as realities shift. But its approach to Iran has remained unchanged since Mr. Obama was a presidential candidate, despite the Green Revolution.

“Before June’s election,” says former student leader Akbar Atri, who fled Iran in 2005, “the Obama administration was determined to negotiate about the nuclear issue because it assumed there was no strong democratic opposition inside the country. That was a wrong assumption. The election showed the Iranians want a different approach. They want to live in peace and freedom.”

Today’s facts don’t fit Mr. Obama’s theory. While he holds tight to that theory nonetheless, Iran’s democrats suffer. Go to WSJ.

…Demands for regime change irritate many reformist intellectuals, who for years have written of the ‘vices’ of social revolution and warned people against it. But it is precisely these radical demands which prevent the regime from doing any internal deals that compromise the popular demand for freedom. As the regime is not unified in repressing the uprising, it has not been able to use its repressive forces to their fullest capacity, which is being further weakened by increasing global public support for the democratic movement.

There are also numerous reports from within military barracks that an increasing number of guards and basijis are becoming disillusioned about their role in the suppression of peaceful demonstrations. As long as the uprising maintains its peaceful methods, and the more the guards are brought to the streets, the faster the regime will collapse.

…The greatest external threat to the uprising may be the possible escalation of crisis around nuclear issues. The sudden willingness of the regime to compromise over the nuclear issue, which UN-Chief negotiator, Mohammad Elbaradei, describes as a ‘gear shift’, could be seen as both a sign of the regime’s weakness and an attempt to foster international peace in order to crack down internally. In this case, global public opinion should be vigilant about any agreement over the nuclear issue, lest it come at the cost of a green light for domestic repression.

On the other hand, it is also possible that the regime will return to an old method of control, creating international crises to control the public through a politics of fear. In such a scenario, the hardening of sanctions that hurt ordinary Iranians and even a possible military attack on Iran’s nuclear installations could prolong the uprising. This is not only because it distracts attention by forcing Iranians to temporarily rally behind the very regime they are trying to overthrow, but also because it could provide an opportunity for the ruling mafia to annihilate its opponents and extend its power. Go to Huffington Post.

…there was a soccer game in Azadi Stadium in Tehran.  It holds about a hundred thousand fans, and it was full of men wearing green and carrying green balloons.  When state-run tv saw what was happening, the color was drained from the broadcast, and viewers saw the game in black and white.  And when the fans began to chant “Death to the Dictator,” “Death to Russia,” and “Death to Putin, Chavez and Nasrallah, enemies of Iran,” the sound was shut off.  So the game turned into a silent movie.  But the censors forgot about the radio, and the microphones stayed open, so that millions of listeners could hear the sounds of the revolution.  And in Azadi Stadium, as in most parts of the country, the security officers either walked away or joined the party.

You will not have heard such stories, nor read about them in our “media,”  which have raised denial of the day’s major events to an art form of late. [IND: Although we don't share Mr. Ledeen's anti-mainstream media views, we are extremely disappointed by their minimal coverage of the Green Movement.  If there are no demonstrations on the streets, there is no coverage.  We are witnessing Islam's reformation before our very own eyes all across Iran today.  This is one of the most important events in world history.]

These little stories illustrate a great event, indeed a world-changing event:  the death of the Islamic Republic of Iran.  Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, and the rest of the evil empire in Tehran, are all dead men walking. We don’t know the schedule for the funeral yet, but Iranians know it’s on the agenda.  One will get you ten at my betting window that, aside from a very thin veneer of top officials (for whom there is no hope, for they will fulfill the demand of the nightly rooftop chants), anyone who is anyone in Iran today is trying to make a deal with Mousavi and Karroubi.  They are all whispering that their hearts are green, and always were green.

…Look at what didn’t happen in the streets last Friday.  Not a shot was fired at the millions of demonstrators in Tehran.  There are YouTubes of police fraternizing with the Greens.  There are stories of Revolutionary Guardsmen helping the demonstrators, and even the Basij didn’t dare to attack or arrest, with a handful of exceptions (one of which is notable:  in Tabriz, if I remember correctly, they started to round up some people, and the crowd turned on them, freed the would-be victims, and beat the Basijis to death). Go to original article.

The Islamic Republic has on the whole been good at producing political theatre. Its establishment knows that politics can be a form of entertainment and that Iranians enjoy a good show. Unlike the shah, who always appeared uncomfortable with politics, the establishment of the Islamic Republic has tended to understand its utility. The sudden scandal, the rumour and, best of all, the “trial” have all helped to preoccupy the inquisitive and perhaps reassure the sceptics that politics remains alive, if not necessarily well, in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Go to Guardian.

Many now want more than a rerun of the disputed June 12 election, heightening the standoff with the regime.

Demonstrators flooded the streets of Tehran on Thursday in large, countrywide protests. But in a development signaling a new stage in the confrontation, they adapted the Iranian Revolution’s most famous slogan – “Independence, Freedom, Islamic Republic” – to their latest demand, shouting instead: “Independence, Freedom, Iranian Republic.” Go to CS Monitor.