…With his Nowruz message, the former prime minister sought to prove that he finally has a grip on the situation — that by spreading the word to the middle and working classes, the movement will return to its rightful path, revitalize its image as a civil, nonviolent campaign, and eventually revive the constitutional right to free elections. But the reception has been poor. Mousavi failed to strike a chord with those whom he would claim as supporters. “All he does is talk, talk, talk,” Naqi said. “We want action. We need a man who can walk the walk and not just talk the talk, and barely at that.”

A gesture that could help the struggling Mousavi, the defeated presidential candidate, transform into an inspiring leader capable of bringing about change is standing up to the ayatollah-in-charge. Only such a move can rejuvenate the waning opposition, garner the support needed for more effective acts of noviolent protest — such as the nationwide strikes that crippled the Shah — and prove to freedom-seeking Iranians that he means business.

It is time for Mousavi to realize that as long as he plays the game according to the rules set by the Islamic Republic, he cannot win. No one will. Go to Tehran Bureau.

Mojtaba Vahedi is a senior advisor to opposition cleric Mehdi Karroubi. Vahedi recently came to study in the United States and spoke to insideIRAN.org from Washington.

Go to Inside Iran.

Free Iran:  When will the reformists recognize that their future is outside of this system not within it?  The hardliners will NEVER allow them the space necessary to function.  The sooner they realize this reality and the sooner they stop deluding themselves about the possibility of reforming this system, the better off the Iranian people will be.

Khatami: Our young generation when witnessing the elimination of those who care for the system by false accusations are saying that if this is the system, we don’t want it… Go to original article.

The English translation of the lyrics to “Ye Rooze Khoob Miad”: See More.

MOHSEN SAZEGARA recognizes that nonviolent protest is a tough sell for most Iranians, given that bloodshed is a part of both their long history and their faith.

But Mr. Sazegara ticks off a couple points in its favor. First, the Islamic Republic has disenchanted a wide section of the population. Second, he believes that Iranians harbor a mystic tradition that could be channeled into the kind of nonviolent tide of dissent that bends history. Go to NY Times.

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Free Iran:  Based on the quotes below from the Economist, does this mean that the Green movement is now being held back by Mousavi & even Karroubi – people who want to work within the confides of the Islamic’s republic’s repressive, bankrupt and failed constitution – and people who believe that Khomeini was somehow a democrat and a humanitarian?  Up to now, one could have given these gentlemen the benefit of the doubt – despite their history and in the belief that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.  But going forward, such reasoning and deference to these gentlemen becomes increasingly more difficult.

Given these difficulties and as this site has repeatedly argued in the past, for the Iranian people to become free, the US needs to help cut off the regime’s oil income. Without its oil income, the regime will be nothing but a paper tiger. The US needs to start with unilateral sanctions against the insurance and shipping companies that help the regime sell Iran’s oil. It’s the oil income, stupid! (For those that may not be aware, “It’s the oil income, stupid!” is a play on Bill Clinton’s 1992 comment that “It’s the economy, stupid.”  I don’t mean disrespect to anyone.)

From the Economist:

…Mr Bakiyev made two decisive mistakes. First, he had almost all the country’s opposition leaders arrested by the morning of April 7th, which left the protesting crowds without any sense of direction or moderating influence. The leaders were almost all released later in the day but by then it was too late. Second, he miscalculated by using brutal force to hang on to power, which ultimately made it impossible for him to stay. The police were also clearly outnumbered by protesters.  Free Iran:  Not sure about either arguments and especially the second one.  The regime in Tehran is a lot more competent about using force than the government of  Kyrgyzstan.

…But the abrupt change in Kyrgyzstan is also being closely watched in the rest of Central Asia. This was the second time that as few as 5,000 demonstrators succeeded in overthrowing an unwanted government in Kyrgyzstan—an example that the no-less authoritarian neighbours fear could be emulated elsewhere. For the Kyrgyz people, though, it is an opportunity to get things right the second time around.

Free Iran:  Fantastic Music!  Creative way to expose the regime’s brutality.  Please do the same in NYC & DC subways.

Dr. Hossein Ziai is the Jahangir and Eleanor Amuzegar chair at UCLA where he is also a tenured full professor of Islamic and Iranian studies and the director of Iranian studies. He received his bachelor’s degree in mathematics and physics in 1967 from Yale University, and his doctorate in Islamic philosophy from Harvard University in 1976.

Prior to his position at UCLA, Ziai taught at Tehran University, Sharif University, Harvard University, Brown University, and Oberlin College. Dr. Ziai has published several volumes and numerous articles on Islamic philosophy, especially on the Iranian/Islamic Illuminationist tradition.

Dr. Hossein Ziai: Well, a few things. Number one, we all now know that the election was fraudulent — blatant fraud, I put it. Number two, what started in June as a widespread grassroots reaction to the election fraud by the government has now intensified into yet another grassroots, but much more widespread and much deeper, movement. I would call it a national movement against the tyranny, the despotism, of this Islamic Republic regime that has dominated everything for 30 years in that country.

Kathleen Wells: What are your thoughts about regime change in Iran?

Dr. Ziai: Well, I mean, the current grassroots movement, known as the Green Movement, does now — it didn’t in June but does now — want a regime change. Does want to bring about genuine, democratic reform by way of establishing a democratic state with free elections, with due process, with justice for all, economic opportunity for all, and what we all take for granted here, which is life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness in a meaningful way. Now, whether this is going to happen in the short run, I don’t know. I am very optimistic, however, given the incredible depths and breadth of this movement, that change will come about — when, I am not sure.

However, I will add that the movement now is seen and is manifest in every city — large, small — in Iran, including rural areas. Certainly all of the major urban centers are all united against this despotic regime.

…Dr. Ziai: In the ideal sense, in my opinion and in the opinion of millions and millions of Iranians, we will have a secular, democratically-elected government that respects individual freedoms, that there is a genuine judicial system that respects due process, and so on. You know, the model of a genuinely democratic republic is readily seen, and this is what millions and millions of Iranians now aspire to.

Recently, people have called for an internationally-monitored referendum, but, of course, the government — that is the military and the government and the thugs and the police and all of the paramilitary people who have been beating people in the streets, and so on — are vehemently against any type of a referendum because they know better than anybody else that they’re in a small minority and a genuine referendum will be their end. They’re never going to allow for a genuine referendum to take place.

Go to Huffington Post.

By Ladane Nasseri

March 31 (Bloomberg) — Iran’s opposition movement lacks the resolve and mass support needed to overthrow the country’s clerical regime, said Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, the Islamic republic’s first president.

In 1979, when Bani-Sadr helped lead the revolution that overthrew the Shah, “the young generation was determined to get rid of the monarchy,” the former president said in an interview at his home in Versailles, France. “Today’s opposition supporters are hesitant and confused as to what they are fighting for,” he said. “They are caught between what they desire and what they think is attainable.”

…Grassroots, Organic

The movement resembles the victorious rebels of 1979 in that “it is grassroots, organic and not controlled by any organization,” said Bani-Sadr, 77, who helped draft Iran’s constitution after the revolution and held the presidency from 1980 to 1981, when he fled the country after losing a power struggle with revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

A key difference, though, is that it “hasn’t taken over all the cities and within cities some of the social classes have not joined,” Bani-Sadr said, citing the limited participation of the working class as an example.

Demonstrations since the election have mostly taken place in the capital, Tehran, and other major cities, while large parts of the country stayed calm.

Another problem for the opposition is that the demands of its supporters have come to exceed what the movement’s leaders are capable of delivering, Bani-Sadr said.

Incapable of Reform

Karrubi and Mousavi have stopped short of calling for the end of clerical rule. Bani-Sadr said the current system is incapable of democratic change, and religion should be separated from politics.

“If the regime was capable of being reformed, I would not be in exile, former President Mohammad Khatami would have succeeded during his time in office of bringing about a more open society, and this electoral fraud would not have taken place,” he said.

Further international sanctions aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program may backfire, especially if they hurt the economy, Bani-Sadr said. The U.S. has led calls for a fourth round of sanctions this year after Iran said it started enriching uranium to the level required to

The regime “benefits from a state of crisis,” and any sanctions should instead target the funds of officials abroad, and the sale of military equipment and technology that can be used to repress the opposition, Bani-Sadr said.

Go to Bloomberg.

…Here’s something I know. Iran is full of people like Negar. She’s 32, a movie editor. She hates the regime. She doesn’t want her country to be attacked, a return to the wailing sirens of the Iran-Iraq war of her youth (in which Israel supported Iran.)

Negar contacted me the other day from a town in central Turkey. She lives there in limbo as her application for refugee status is processed by a U.N. agency. Her story returned me to the road from Revolution to Freedom.

It’s just an ordinary Iranian story — of waste.

On July 17, 2009, she was in a protesting crowd when security agents grabbed her, rammed her head into a water channel, broke her hand. Her camera and bag were taken. “I knew they would come for me.”

She managed to get her passport renewed, flew to Istanbul, and decided to seek asylum in Britain. Her parents borrowed money and she paid $10,000 for a fake Italian passport. The people-smuggler said she should travel to Nairobi, and from there to London: That way she’d look like a tourist.

So Negar headed for Africa, spent four days wandering Nairobi — and was arrested at the airport. Deportation to Iran loomed. “No,” said Negar, a convinced atheist, “they might kill me.” She was put on a plane back to Istanbul via Dubai.

In Dubai, the authorities wanted to deport her to Iran. She prevailed again and proceeded to Turkey, where she was detained and held for five weeks. Under the terms of her release she had to move to central Turkey to await the result of her refugee application.

History’s whirlwind got her.

Negar’s heart is in Iran. “It was a great moment, changes came,” she told me. “People are motivated, this stupidity cannot continue. Before we were hidden, now we have found each other. The day I met you was incredible, so much serenity. I realized: Iranians care about their destiny.”

Negar now wants to come to the United States, pending the new Iran she considers inevitable. I asked why. “Because there I can be the way I am.”

Negar does not want her country bombed. “It would be a big, big mistake. All Iranians would unite in anger.”

Her own government stifled Negar’s voice. But the world must listen. It’s her country after all — and the ballot-counting Heydari’s.

Go to NY Times.

Free Iran:  The Green leaders need to be much tougher on the economic issues.  This is not enough.  They need to say something like this: “Unemployment, inflation, poverty, and class differences are the direct result of this government’s corruption, incompetence and foreign policy adventurism.”  Keep it simple and brief.  It worked for Reagan, Clinton, Putin, Chinese leaders, etc. and it’ll work for the Green movement too.  Unless immediate national securities are at stake, almost always it’s the economy, stupid. Green leaders need to focus all their energies on creating economic boycotts, culminating into strikes by the oil workers.  That’s the only way this regime will be brought down – by cutting off their main source of funding.  To begin this road, the Green leaders need to constantly ask the Iranian people and especially the oil workers:

Are you better off today than you were before Ahmadinejad first took office?

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WSJ:  Iran Opposition Leader Lashes Out at Regime

Iran’s top opposition leader said his protest movement would persevere despite a blistering crackdown, and he leveled fresh criticism at the regime’s handling of the economy and foreign policy.

The message, broadcast in a video release on the Internet to supporters marking the Iranian new year, appeared aimed at continuing Mir Hossein Mousavi’s strategy of broadening the appeal of his movement. He and other opposition leaders have recently moved beyond domestic political complaints to focus on, among other things, economic hardship it blames on the policies of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Mr. Mousavi repeated that grievance and other political complaints he’s made against the regime: “We do not have a free media or the freedoms outlined in the constitution,” he said. “We lack free elections, where candidates are not cherry-picked, and fair competition.”

But he also broadened his criticism to what he suggested was economic-policy and foreign-policy incompetence by the government.

“Economic prospects for the future are not good,” he said. “I am not pleased with this situation. I wish that despite all our issues, we would have seen an outlook to solve these nonpolitical issues.”

Iran’s economy has been buoyed by recently high oil prices. But the country has long been plagued by high unemployment and high inflation, though price increases have moderated recently. Before the June election, Mr. Ahmadinejad suffered criticism, even from some of his allies, for his handling of the economy.

Carnegie:  Iran’s Economy in Turmoil

The Iranian economy is facing its bleakest prospects in nearly two decades, with an almost unanimous forecast of low growth, high inflation, and continued double-digit unemployment. These worsening economic conditions, in turn, are likely to place considerable stress on internal politics, leading to strikes, protests, and business bankruptcies, and encouraging further emigration and capital flight. Persistent structural weaknesses and the Ahmadinejad administration’s gross mismanagement of the economy are largely at fault for the economy’s dysfunction, but recent external developments—including Western banks and industrial companies’ reduced exposure to Iran, possible new sanctions, and increasing transaction costs—are also damaging the economic climate.

…The worsening economic conditions are likely to place considerable stress on internal politics: energizing the “greens” movement, provoking strikes by disgruntled and unpaid workers; giving rise to massive protests by university campus activists; and leading to further exodus of talent and capital, as well as a spate of business bankruptcies.

While the somber trend line and the economy’s poor prospects may still fail to fulfill the wishes of democracy advocates at home (and their supporters abroad), hoping for a “regime change,” such factors as reduced foreign exchange reserves, uncertain oil prices, an overvalued exchange rate, looming external pressures, and internal political exigencies are bound to drastically affect President Ahmadinejad’s major economic policies, if not his bombastic rhetoric, in the coming year.

FT:  Ahmadi-Nejad meets clergy to mend relations

Iran’s president tried to repair his relations with the religious establishment on Thursday by paying a rare visit to the holy city of Qom and meeting senior members of the clergy.

Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad held talks with about six senior clerics, who had previously been deeply reluctant even to meet him. “A massive lobby by the most influential authorities happened to convince the clergy to see the president,” said one analyst in Qom.

Mr Ahmadi-Nejad has probably had worse relations with Iran’s religious institutions than any other president since the Islamic revolution in 1979. Partly this is because he has publicly disagreed with the clerics on some social issues: he defied their wishes by trying to allow women to enter stadiums to watch football matches.

Another important cause of the breach is the clergy’s concern over Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s beliefs about the “hidden Imam” of the Shias, who is believed to have disappeared in 941. Shias believe that he will one day return to bring justice to the world. But Mr Ahmadi-Nejad has publicly predicted that the “hidden Imam’s” reappearance is imminent, causing suspicions that he feels personally connected.

Many in the senior clergy believe that Mr Ahmadi-Nejad and his loyalists have unorthodox beliefs about the “hidden Imam”, comparable to those of a “sect”.

The Qom seminary, with about 50,000 scholars and a dozen grand ayatollahs, is not as powerful as it was in the early years of the revolution. But it still holds a significant position in Iran’s Islamic establishment, able to give religious legitimacy to political factions. Consequently, Mr Ahmadi-Nejad wants to win its backing.

CS Monitor:  Iran protests: Is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei winning?

“[Khamenei] thinks, ‘If I can have even 20-30 percent of the people with me, and have systematic pressure on the other 70 percent, I can lead for a long time and there wouldn’t be a serious threat against me,’” says Mr. Khalaji, whose father, an ayatollah in the Iranian religious center of Qom, was arrested without charge and held in solitary confinement in Evin Prison for three weeks in January.

“[Khamenei] tries to keep as many people [as he can] inside the circle of the elite, [while] empowering the suppression machinery of the regime more than before,” adds Khalaji.

“What hurts him is that some people can reveal this division,” says Khalaji at WINEP. “The division itself is not important. He thinks, ‘I can manage it, I can deal with opposition, I can intimidate them, I can prevent them from coming to the streets.’

“What is damaging to him is media, is pictures – the image of opposition is damaging for him,” adds Khalaji. “That’s why he’s so tough on media, on intellectuals, artists, writers, professors at university – nobody should talk about it. Talking about this means questioning the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.”

WP:  Iran jails former vice president, reform activist

Times:  Opposition couple demand ‘year of resistance’ against Iran’s rulers

Khordaad88:  Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s Norouz Message

Khordaad88:  Zahra Rahnavard’s Norouz Message

NYT:  First Couple of Iran’s Opposition Post Video Messages for Persian New Year

RFE:  Call To Release Iran’s ‘Blogfather’ For Norouz

Zamaaneh:  Families of Iranian detainees demand release of their kin

MediaLine: Iran Launches Anti-Sanctions Car Engine

Zamaaneh: Faezeh Hashemi, daughter of Iran’s Chairman of the Expediency Council, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani told Bahar newspaper that the judiciary has failed to process their lawsuit against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Rooz: While a number of journalists and political prisoners were released yesterday, speaking to a group of families of political prisoners Tehran’s prosecutor general warned that he would not release individuals whose families had spoken about the matter to media networks.

It’s the Economy, Stupid

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FT:  Iran’s regime contains but fails to eliminate the opposition NAJMEH BOZORGMEHRIN writes:

Iran’s regime seems to have learnt how to curb street protests. By carrying out death sentences upon some opposition supporters and enforcing draconian security measures before any expected rally, the authorities have prevented their critics from taking to the streets in large numbers since the Shia festival of Ashoura in December.

The opposition Green Movement became adept at using official occasions for demonstrations. But no important protests took place during Tuesday’s festival before Iranian new year. The opposition did not succeed in holding large rallies on the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution last month.

Instead, the Green Movement’s leaders have changed course, publicly urging followers to stop mass demonstrations, to avoid bloodshed and to win support of other social groups, notably lower-income people.

Now the opposition waits to see how lower-income people will react to the government’s plan to cut subsidies that hold down prices of basic goods. That could jeopardise many jobs and raise inflation from about 30 per cent to about 50 per cent. “The opposition is trying to make people refocus their attacks on the government, to force Ayatollah Khamenei either to remove Mr Ahmadi-Nejad or accept political reforms,” said the former official.

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president who threw his weight behind reformists during the election, tries to mediate. He recently hinted Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s government could be sacrificed to ensure the Islamic Republic’s survival.

But there is no sign Ayatollah Khamenei is willing to consider any compromise with the opposition.

Also see:  Irish Times:  Hard line seems to have tamed Iran’s Green movement

Instead, the Green Movement’s leaders have changed course, publicly urging followers to stop mass demonstrations, to avoid bloodshed and to win support of other social groups, notably lower-income people.

The opposition has dropped its tactic of confrontation.

BY CARRYING out death sentences on some opposition supporters and enforcing draconian security measures before any expected rally, the Iranian authorities have prevented their critics from taking to the streets in large numbers since the Shia festival of Ashoura in December.

The opposition Green Movement became adept at using official occasions for demonstrations. But no important protests took place during this Tuesday’s festival before Iranian new year. Nor did the opposition succeed in holding large rallies on the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution last month.

Free Iran:  Although the Green leaders seem to be focusing a bit more on the economy, it’s still way too little. (I wrote a brief piece on Feb 2 titled It’s the economy, stupid, emphasizing why Mr. Mousavi needs to focus much more on the economic issues.)  It’s the opinion of this humble blogger that every speech that they give has to address the people’s pocketbook issues – every single speech.  The Green leaders have to make the case as to why they and only they could offer a brighter economic future for the people.  Keep it simple.  Keep it short.  Emphasis pocketbook issues.

Although the following comments don’t contain any pocketbook issues, Mr. Karroubi makes some excellent points about the role of the media.

Karroubi: Why no criticisms of BBC when it was “assisting the Revolution?”

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Zamaaneh:  Karroubi challenges hardliner accusations against opposition

Mehdi Karroubi criticized Islamic Republic for attributing any form of opposition to foreign conspiracies adding that Iran’s last monarch used the same argument against the opposition forces of the time that later established the Islamic Republic.

Addressing hardliner accusations, the reform leader asks: “Why is it that the justifications of the Shah (Iran’s last monarch) for his actions were wrong but the very logic and content of his words coming form you, is to be considered right?”

Speaking to the members of the reformist group, Islamic Iran Participation Front, Karroubi asked why were there no criticisms against BBC when it was “assisting the Revolution?”

The Secretary-General of the National Trust Party reminded his detractors that Ayatollah Khomeini, the late founder of the Islamic Republic, took advantage of all news agencies and media in his political struggles against the monarchy and no one in the Islamic Republic would accuse him of having foreign ties.

Free Iran:  Maybe not today.  Maybe not tomorrow.  But the Iranian people’s victory is inevitable.  They will do away with this failed, miserable regime.  They will gain their freedom, and respect for their human rights.  The following are some posters and music videos – songs of hope, resistance and victory.  Long live the brave people of Iran.

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See More.