TEHRAN (Reuters) – A prominent member of Iran’s parliament dismissed on Wednesday President Barack Obama’s “new year” appeal for dialogue with the Islamic republic, a message that no official has yet responded to directly.

Obama said in an address on Saturday that he still sought a historic dialogue with Iran, which Washington suspects is seeking nuclear weapons through its energy program.

“Those comments were nothing but a deception,” Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of the parliament’s Foreign Policy and National Security Committee, said on comments on news agency ILNA.

“They (Americans) have sent several messages during the last year calling for talks with Iran, but at the same time passed more than 60 anti-Iranian bills in their Congress,” he said.

“As long as there is no sense of balance between their comments and actions, offering talks could be only a trick … Obama has lost his prestige among the world’s public opinion, therefore his new year message has no value.” Go to NY Times.

The seventh conference by Iran’s Assembly of Experts on Leadership – a body that is constitutionally charged with supervising the conference opens its session tomorrow while the faction supporting the administration in the Majlis, along with several prominent right-wing hardline figures affiliated with the military-security apparatus has intensified its attacks on Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Assembly’s chairman while also stepping up its defense and praise of ayatollah Khomeini’s positions.

In this connection, Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, a radical cleric who staunchly supports Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and who has been silent since the Ashoura Day protests, suddenly appeared in a meeting attended by his “students,” according to websites close to the administration to praise ayatollah Khamenei’s leadership.

In his remarks, without naming Mousavi and Karoubi, Mesbah-Yazdi blasted “leaders of the opposition” and referred to them as “conspirators.” Go to Rooz Online.

Most police officials around the world prefer to stay aloof of politics, concentrating their attention on mundane matters of law enforcement and insisting on their integrity, in the face of pressures from City Hall or partisan interests. Not so in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where Police Chief Gen. Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam sees fit not only to take sides in the ongoing factional political fight within Iran’s establishment, but to opine on matters of foreign policy and comparative social science.

Analysts say Ahmadi-Moqaddam is a confidante of Mojtaba Khamenei, the mid-ranking cleric close to the Revolutionary Guard who is the hard-line son of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Many consider Ahmadi-Moqaddam’s comments a reflection of the younger Khamenei’s worldview.

Go to LA Times.

If Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad thought he was in the clear after his government managed to overwhelm opposition protesters during Thursday’s 22 Bahman rally commemorating the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, he got a rude awakening Friday.

A leading conservative rival to Ahmadinejad, lawmaker Ali Mottahari, warned that Iran was not yet out of the clear.

“We cannot claim the crisis is totally over until both sides make up for their mistakes,” he said in an interview with Khabaronline (in Persian), the news website affiliated with parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani. “The differences of opinion between the government and [the opposition] might have been eased to some extent, but they still exist. Our statesmen should not imagine that people’s massive presence in the Thursday rally reflects the approval of their performance…. The presence of political elite in the rally does not mean there is no longer any criticism or objection towards the regime.”

Mottahari recently called on opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to stop calling for protests for a bit and let government insiders like him take care of Ahmadinejad and his ilk. Go to LA Times.

On February 5, 2010, David Cvach, Mehdi Khalaji, and Ali Alfoneh addressed a special Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute to discuss developments in Iran that may indicate either lost ground for reform-minded activists or cracks in the very foundation of the Islamic Republic. Mr. Cvach is political counselor for the Middle East at the French embassy in Washington, D.C. Mr. Khalaji, who wrote on the Supreme Leader’s potential to make political compromise in PolicyWatch #1628, is a senior fellow at the Institute. Mr. Alfoneh, who recently wrote on the Basij militia’s impact in Iran (PolicyWatch #1627), is a visiting research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.

Mehdi Khalaji

Two key barometers of the growing divide between the Iranian government and people are the attitudes of the clerical class and the level of regime violence against the protest movement. First, the clerical establishment is very complicated and does not fit the neat “pro-government clerics versus anti-government clerics” division often assumed by foreign observers. Such a distinction cannot actually exist in Iran because Ayatollah Khamenei controls the entire establishment. Every imam in the country is appointed by the government. Those clerics who have recently been critical of the regime (e.g., Ayatollahs Ali Hossein Montazeri and Yousef Sanei) therefore have no significant influence in the establishment, and their offices have been shut down.

Instead, it is the mainstream pro-government clerics whose attitudes deserve the most scrutiny. These clerics are of two kinds. The vast majority are politically docile, distancing themselves from such issues while accepting the advantages of regime patronage. A much smaller minority are politically active and support Khamenei vociferously. In 2005, when President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad first came to power, this smaller faction was very supportive of him and his hardline positions. Today, however, this characteristically loud group has fallen mostly silent when it comes to the president. As Ahmadinezhad’s popularity plummeted following the June 2009 election, these clerics recognized that it had become too risky to support him publicly and thus did not even send him notes of congratulations upon his victory. If observers begin to suspect that this faction’s support for the regime is eroding further, then Khamenei’s grip on power may become increasingly fragile.

A spike in regime violence also indicates growing fissures. The government has begun to arrest more and more people; currently, an estimated 4,000 political prisoners are being held. The government’s strategy of intimidation has revolved around arresting prominent public figures while torturing and executing relative unknowns. If the regime continues to raise the level of violence against the protesters, the implied message will be clear — Tehran is worried about its ability to control the political crisis. A violent crackdown would hurt the regime’s legitimacy and popularity with the Iranian people and may actually backfire. That is, if the Iranian people see that nobody is safe from the crackdown — not even Mir Hossein Mousavi’s advisors, or the family of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, or the son of the founder of the Islamic Republic’s judiciary system — then they will feel they have nothing to lose and will be even less afraid to protest. Go to Washington Institute.

Source: Jaras
Date: Saturday, February 6, 2010

Dear Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi

Please accept my greetings. I have read your interview with the Kalemeh news agency, an interview which rather resembled a statement. Considering that you have issued this interview in the days leading to the anniversary of the revolution, I am assuming that this was an action with an intended purpose and would have practical positive and negative consequences. As a result I thought I would send you this open letter.

In my view, you have enumerated the problems very well, but no the solution. The spirit of you statement and your words is that we have come for a reform not for vengeance, or power or destruction. This can be the common goal and the point of unity for the current political crisis, specially considering that continuous reform in society is one of the pillars of Islamic teachings known as ‘encouraging to virtue, and discouraging from vice.’ But what path can achieve this goal easier? Go to Khordad 88.

Speculation is mounting that Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may high-tail it from Iran if protests against his theocracy intensify. An Iranian government memorandum, purportedly leaked by dissidents within Iran’s crumbling regime, allegedly states the Supreme Leader’s aircraft is ready for a quick departure to Russia. Opposition sources claim the Supreme Leader and his cohorts have stashed ill-gotten financial gains there and other countries.

While it is unclear whether Khamenei has prepared for flight, it is safe to assume some thought has been given to the matter. Khamenei and his ilk apparently lead lavish lifestyles they seem loath to give up, and Iran’s leaders who have benefited from clerical governance are, at least for now, girding themselves for a struggle to the bitter end.

Foreign administrations–especially in Washington, London and Jerusalem–should not count on a rapid departure of the theocrats nor an end to Iran’s pursuit of nuclear power, sponsorship of terrorism and generally recalcitrant behavior. Indeed, as the theocracy struggles to stave off defeat it will be more tempted than ever to rally support at home and aboard. The temptation to fuel nationalism through building nuclear missiles, rouse Islamism though Hezbollah, Hamas and even al-Qaeda, and champion anti-Westernism through agreements with other totalitarian nations could grow much stronger. Rafsanjani himself warned recently that “extremism is the country’s most serious problem.”

Increasingly, the fundamental dilemma facing the West is whether negotiating and trading with incumbents in Tehran undercuts those Iranians who are sacrificing so much for change. Indeed the West’s single-minded pursuit of a nuclear deal with the autocratic ayatollahs could provoke anti-Western sentiments among reformists as happened in 1979.

Which side will triumph may seem unclear, but should not. Iranian governments ultimately have been unable able to suppress their people’s aspirations–not in 1905 during the Constitutional Revolution nor in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution. Yet given the religious and absolutist overtones that the struggle is taking, Iran’s internal situation will become much bloodier and its external relations may grow more fraught before getting better. Go to Forbes.

Recent statements made by high-ranking conservatives in Iran and the reaction of ultra conservatives to those statements have lead many Iran watchers to believe that the rift within the conservative establishment s is widening. The most recent instance was the war of words between Ali Motahhari, a conservative member of parliament, and Hossein Shariatmadari, the ultra conservative editor-in-chief of Kayhan and a staunch supporter of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

There are two theories about this apparent rift. A number of observers and political activists, who spoke to InsideIRAN.org on the condition of anonymity, believe that the ruling establishment is trying to trade in the reformists and the Green Movement for a moderate conservative alternative. These moderate conservatives include senior Iranian officials such as Larijani, Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, the deputy speaker of parliament, and Mohsen Rezai, the former commander of the IRGC and candidate in the June 12 presidential election, and others.

The second theory advanced by a number of political commentators revolves around the notion of “regime survival.” Members of this group believe that some conservatives, who do not approve of Ahmadinejad’s radicalism, are genuinely worried about the survival of the Islamic Republic. Moderate conservatives also fear that their fate might soon mirror that of the reformists, who have been tortured and imprisoned.

Moderate conservatives in Iran are concerned. Their ideological differences with the reformists bars them from forming a viable coalition with them. At the same time, they fear the policies of the radicals can gravely jeopardize their political survival, and the survival of the Islamic Republic. Go to original article.

Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor in chief of Kayhan and mouthpiece for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, wrote an editorial attacking new figures in the conservative wing of the Islamic Republic who are not 100 percent in line with the radical policies of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the recent crackdown on dissidents inside Iran.

Shariatmadari’s new target was Ali Motahhari, a conservative member of parliament…Shariatmadari, who is the representative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Kayhan, wrote an editorial calling Motahhari’s ideas foolish and ignorant. He rejected calls made by moderate conservatives to reach out to the opposition. He wrote: “The leaders of sedition were carrying out the plans of the U.S. and Israel.” Shariatmadari even went further by claiming that the opposition and its leaders were no longer within the Islamic Republic and they were now in the same category as other counterrevolutionaries, such as the monarchists and the Mojahedin Khalgh Organization (MKO).

Mr. Shariatmadari’s missive is remarkable for it shows that the radicals are unwilling to reach out to moderate conservatives, let alone the opposition headed by Mir Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi. The radical wing of the conservative faction, which has members in every civilian and military branch of the government, views calls for national unity and rapprochement as a sign of defeat for their plan to eliminate the reformists and moderates from Iran’s political landscape.

The current clash widens the existing cleavage between the moderate and the radical wings of the so-called conservative political faction and further alienates those who are loyal supporters of the Islamic Republic and the Supreme Leader, but do not support the government’s policies regarding the opposition. Go to original article.

Moderate supporters of Iran’s regime are reaching towards a compromise with the opposition by sacrificing the hardline fundamentalist who served as Teh­ran’s prosecutor-general.

A parliamentary committee has publicly blamed Saeed Mortazavi, an ally of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, the president, for the deaths of a least three prisoners in a detention centre.

State television has begun showing debates between radical and moderate supporters of the regime, in which Mr Ahmadi-Nejad has been blamed for causing the crisis.

Moderate fundamentalists argue that Mir-Hossein Moussavi, the main opposition leader, opened the door to compromise in his last statement by refraining from calling for the overthrow of the government.

Mohammad Khatami, a former reformist president, also struck a conciliatory tone on Monday, condemning radicalism on both sides.

He insisted that most reformists were loyal to the constitution and to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader. Mr Khatami publicly disowned some slogans chanted by the opposition in favour of establishing a secular state.

“The radicals should not be allowed to reign and we should all defend the Islamic republic,” he said. Go to Financial Times.

An Iranian conservative cleric, Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi, has said on state television that instead of jailing opposition protesters, it would be better to kill them.  Here is the link to the video of parts of his controversial comments, aired by Iran’s state television.  Discussing the protest movement, Shirazi said:  “The more of them are killed, the more it is in the benefit of the people. If the police forces kill some of them, it is to our benefit.”  “When they are detained, it is bad; when they are arrested, it is bad. Do not make victims out of your enemies,” the cleric added. Go to Radio Free Europe.

It was originally the leader of the Iranian revolution of 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini, who used the terms mofsed fel arz and mohareb to describe those layers that he regarded as opposition. Islamic Republic’s penal code provides the following definition:

Anybody who takes up arms to create fear and to divest people of their freedom and security is mohareb and mofsed-e fel-arz. Anybody convicted of being mohareb or mofsed-e fel-arz or both may be sentenced to death at the behest of the ruling judge.

Those two sentences sent thousands of post-revolutionary opposition figures to their death, as documented by international human rights organisations. It was the man who became known as the “hanging judge”, the late Ayatollah Khalkhali, who in early 1980s used those terms readily to send people to their deaths.

So, the stage is set in every sense for putting the demonstrators on trial, accusing them of being mofsed fel arz or mohareb, giving them five days to appeal, and then in all probability sending them for execution. More than 500 were arrested in Ashura demonstrations. Several leading opposition figures were targeted and detained over the past two weeks.

The measures so far have done nothing to deter the demonstrators. However, they have done much to discredit the Islamic Republic’s political standing. Go to Guardian.

IND:  Could this be a harbinger of things to come?  The smart ones see the writing on the wall first and make the move  – while others follow later.  This is happening among some Iran analysts in the U.S. who before were all about engagement but now all of a sudden are all about human rights.  Although no one is blind to their opportunism, we congratulate them.  It’s never too late to embrace the cause of human rights.

A diplomat at the Iranian embassy in Norway told Norwegian television on Wednesday that he had resigned in protest over a crackdown on demonstrators in Iran but the government in Tehran denied the report.

“It was the Iranian authorities’ treatment of demonstrators during the Christmas week that made me realize I couldn’t continue,” public broadcaster NRK quoted Mohammed Reza Heydari as saying.

NRK, which said it had spoken to Heydari, presented his quotes in text rather than audio or video form.

Heydari, who NRK said has served as a consul at the embassy for the last three years, was not reachable for comment. Go to Washington Post.

IND:  I hope this news serves as a reminder for the supporters of the regime that you are nothing but a pawn and you will be sacrificed when it suits the regime’s interests.  Switch sides or at least refrain from using violence against the people.

A parliamentary probe has found a former Tehran prosecutor responsible for the death by torture of at least three anti-government protesters detained in the turmoil following the disputed June elections, a conservative Iranian Web site reported Wednesday.

Saeed Mortazavi was the Tehran city prosecutor who was responsible for monitoring Kahrizak prison. After months of denials, Iran’s judiciary acknowledged last month that three detainees there were beaten to death by their jailers.

Mortazavi is detested by reformists, who have dubbed him the ”butcher of the press” and ”torturer of Tehran” because he was behind the closure of more than 120 newspapers and the imprisonment of dozens of journalists and political activists over the past decade. Go to NY Times.