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Beneath Iraq, Afghan, Israel Policy: Iran, Iran, Iran
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Free Iran: Mr.Seib is correct that Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Israeli-Palestinian problems are all connected to Iran but he and the Obama administration are confusing (in the opinion of this humble blogger) the dependent and independent variables. Without helping Iran become democratic, it’s virtually impossible to solve all these other problems. It’s much easier for Iran to play the role of the spoiler than for the US to play the role of the nation builder/peace maker/consensus maker or what have you. Job #1 is Iran.
But each of the other moves is directly tied to that overarching concern about Iran and its influence in the region. In Iraq, the effort to consolidate power in a credible central government also is an attempt to block neighboring Iran’s ability to exert influence there. Similarly, stabilizing Afghanistan would demonstrate the ability of the West to bolster moderate Muslims as a counter to the rise of Iran-like extremism.
And restarting Israeli-Palestinian talks is an effort not just to seek peace on the Palestinian front, but also to remove a political sore point in the Palestinian problem—one that Arab leaders say inflames their people and reduces their ability to cooperate with the U.S. and Israel in countering Iran’s nuclear ambitions. More directly, a successful Palestinian peace process also would reduce the influence of Iran’s allies in the Hamas movement, which seeks to undermine Mr. Abbas and other moderate Palestinian leaders.
Of course, it could all go terribly wrong. A disintegration of the fragile government that U.S. forces leave behind in Iraq would only widen the playing field there for Iranian trouble-making. Palestinian talks could collapse quickly over the question of new Israeli settlement activity, strengthening the hand of Iran’s radical friends in the Hamas and Hezbollah Palestinian movements.
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