The Web keeps them involved with events inside Iran, easing some of the isolation of life in exile. Still, they can no longer directly confront the government in the Islamic republic, where widespread bloody repression has left the opposition Green Movement with an uncertain future. From Ankara, Turkey, to Oslo to New York, the exiles struggle to remain relevant, hoping that by reflecting on past experience they can somehow shape whatever future emerges.

“They have shifted the goal posts in saying that Iran is ruled by an illegitimate government; that had never been said before by so many people who were important inside the government,” said Behrouz Afagh, the director of the BBC World Service for Asia and the Pacific, including its successful Persian-language television channel. “But they have a future only if things inside Iran keep moving. Once out they might be effective for a year or two, then what they say will not have the same resonance.”

Given the scattershot nature of the exiles’ escapes, their exact numbers are elusive, though the United Nations says there has been an increase in the number of academics, journalists and others seeking refugee status on the grounds of persecution for political opinions.