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The Death Spiral of the Iranian Regime
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Monday night in the city of Karaj, a car blew up. It was carrying several members of the Revolutionary Guards’ “foreign legion,” non-Iranian Arabs being trained for operations against Americans and our friends and allies in the region. The explosion was enormous. “They used too much explosives,” an Iranian friend commented. Neither he nor I knows who carried out the attack, but it is only one of many. I haven’t seen a report about it in the press, but then there is no press these days in Iran; the papers — those that hadn’t already been shut down by the censors — have been silenced during the Norooz holiday.
But the Iranian people have not been silenced. In addition to assassinations such as the spectacular explosion in Karaj, there have been more joyful confrontations with security forces across the country. There may not be newspapers, but there are videos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxlaH9wDMPY&feature=channel (from Kermanshah)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ohv8GhrEbNw&feature=channel (from Khoram Abad)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2i0ri-pV7Q&feature=player_embedded# (from Abadan)
http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/2010/03/tears-determination-and-joy-greet-new.html (from Shiraz and Tehran)
There are others, but you get the picture. It’s an ongoing revolt.
…I do not believe in historical inevitability, but I do think that the Iranian regime’s days are numbered. Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and the new tycoons of the Revolutionary Guards are now objects of derision in the streets of the country. During the recent Fire Festival, an Iranian wryly said to me that Khamenei’s official photograph must be the most popular picture of all time, since it was the principal component of the bonfires. The supreme leader is widely considered to be the supreme loser.
When the regime comes down, the leaders of a free Iran will look back and ask themselves why no one in the West helped them when the regime was beating, torturing and executing them. What will our leaders say?
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