It’s the Economy, Stupid

.

FT:  Iran’s regime contains but fails to eliminate the opposition NAJMEH BOZORGMEHRIN writes:

Iran’s regime seems to have learnt how to curb street protests. By carrying out death sentences upon some opposition supporters and enforcing draconian security measures before any expected rally, the authorities have prevented their critics from taking to the streets in large numbers since the Shia festival of Ashoura in December.

The opposition Green Movement became adept at using official occasions for demonstrations. But no important protests took place during Tuesday’s festival before Iranian new year. The opposition did not succeed in holding large rallies on the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution last month.

Instead, the Green Movement’s leaders have changed course, publicly urging followers to stop mass demonstrations, to avoid bloodshed and to win support of other social groups, notably lower-income people.

Now the opposition waits to see how lower-income people will react to the government’s plan to cut subsidies that hold down prices of basic goods. That could jeopardise many jobs and raise inflation from about 30 per cent to about 50 per cent. “The opposition is trying to make people refocus their attacks on the government, to force Ayatollah Khamenei either to remove Mr Ahmadi-Nejad or accept political reforms,” said the former official.

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president who threw his weight behind reformists during the election, tries to mediate. He recently hinted Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s government could be sacrificed to ensure the Islamic Republic’s survival.

But there is no sign Ayatollah Khamenei is willing to consider any compromise with the opposition.

Also see:  Irish Times:  Hard line seems to have tamed Iran’s Green movement

Instead, the Green Movement’s leaders have changed course, publicly urging followers to stop mass demonstrations, to avoid bloodshed and to win support of other social groups, notably lower-income people.

The opposition has dropped its tactic of confrontation.

BY CARRYING out death sentences on some opposition supporters and enforcing draconian security measures before any expected rally, the Iranian authorities have prevented their critics from taking to the streets in large numbers since the Shia festival of Ashoura in December.

The opposition Green Movement became adept at using official occasions for demonstrations. But no important protests took place during this Tuesday’s festival before Iranian new year. Nor did the opposition succeed in holding large rallies on the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution last month.

Free Iran:  Although the Green leaders seem to be focusing a bit more on the economy, it’s still way too little. (I wrote a brief piece on Feb 2 titled It’s the economy, stupid, emphasizing why Mr. Mousavi needs to focus much more on the economic issues.)  It’s the opinion of this humble blogger that every speech that they give has to address the people’s pocketbook issues – every single speech.  The Green leaders have to make the case as to why they and only they could offer a brighter economic future for the people.  Keep it simple.  Keep it short.  Emphasis pocketbook issues.

Although the following comments don’t contain any pocketbook issues, Mr. Karroubi makes some excellent points about the role of the media.

Karroubi: Why no criticisms of BBC when it was “assisting the Revolution?”

.

Zamaaneh:  Karroubi challenges hardliner accusations against opposition

Mehdi Karroubi criticized Islamic Republic for attributing any form of opposition to foreign conspiracies adding that Iran’s last monarch used the same argument against the opposition forces of the time that later established the Islamic Republic.

Addressing hardliner accusations, the reform leader asks: “Why is it that the justifications of the Shah (Iran’s last monarch) for his actions were wrong but the very logic and content of his words coming form you, is to be considered right?”

Speaking to the members of the reformist group, Islamic Iran Participation Front, Karroubi asked why were there no criticisms against BBC when it was “assisting the Revolution?”

The Secretary-General of the National Trust Party reminded his detractors that Ayatollah Khomeini, the late founder of the Islamic Republic, took advantage of all news agencies and media in his political struggles against the monarchy and no one in the Islamic Republic would accuse him of having foreign ties.