Free Iran:  I received the following email from someone I know and trust in Tehran.

The executive branch of  Iran has increased its power and grip over the administration of state institutions (economic and political) since the June Presidential election. They have made new appointees from the Revolutionary Guard and it is planned that the number two position in any state institution will be a Guard’s man!  The civil servants know this and are extremely upset with that and with the way politics and economics are being managed. The Guard appointees have no knowledge ,experience, and expertise about the organization they are being assigned to. There is a tremendous amount of dissatisfaction within state institutions, but they do not dare say or do anything. The Guard is spreading its tentacles. The civil servants, like ordinary people, have to deal with low income, huge inflation (the government says it is now lowered to 11.4% -???), lack of job opportunities for their children, social restrictions, etc. Hence, this element of society is very angry.

As for the ordinary people, nothing has improved except for more unemployment!! (the private sector laying off people – from bazaar to retailers to contractors to small industries and many other entrepreneurs). New high school and college graduates will not find jobs.  Petrol rations have been slashed for all – private users, taxis, van and truck drivers. People in the transport business now have to buy about 50% of their monthly needs based on open market prices. Inflation is still increasing, govt figures not withstanding.

Moral is very, very low. There is an amazing sense of pessimism every where, even among the more affluent people who live in northern Tehran. Why? People with successful companies cannot get paid by their customers. The government has reduced its budget payment to state organizations which are its biggest clients. State organizations (ministries and others) award contracts to and buy goods and services from the private sector. So, when the government does not pay the state institutions, they, in turn, cannot pay their contractors and suppliers. The private sector is squeezed badly for liquidity. Shareholders and loans from banks can only carry them so far. After that, they have to reduce operations or close shop. Liquidity squeeze on a macro and micro scale is choking business and the economy. Customers owe so much money to their suppliers but cannot pay them.

One does not see large gathering of people any more. People do not feel like having parties in their homes. Many are scared to go to parties. Their moral is low. It is really a terrible feeling. Gatherings have been reduced to a few people. The traffic in Tehran has gotten worse since last year and the pollution was awful this winter. Therapist and psychiatrists say because of the enormous amount of stress and pollution, many people are developing severe psychological and emotional problems.

As for within the system, the split is widening. Almost all those who were part of the ‘reformist’/’liberal’ elements of the Khatami era and part of the system are now in opposition to the system. That split has spread to Qom and among the prominent ‘leaders’. The religious talk is all a facade. There are whispers that  about 2,000 Guardsmen were just arrested! The executive branch has become an absolute military dictatorship. Their ruthless responses have scared people from challenging them in the streets. One can witness sporadic challenges on certain dates but it is not widespread. In the short term, people are gripped with the vicious response from the guards.  The number and type of people who were released after their arrests is staggering. Most are educated and professional people. At the 22nd of bahman demonstrations, ( about a month ago)  at least over 100 thousand militia forces were on all corners of the streets in city Tehran center with about 5,000 motor bike militias dressed like soldiers of darth vader. As for corruption,  think Nigeria , Russia , Uganda , etc. They approach one with no shame and very openly state their outlandish demands.

All of the above is nothing really new. In summary, conditions are getting worse. No one knows what the hell is happening to the $4 billion of oil income Iran receives every month. One can only guess that the state expenditure is huge- that there is not sufficient money to even cover the current account. The trend is very very alarming and open dissatisfaction has really grown.

In the longer term, the  regime is paying a heavy price in terms of their legitimacy and people’s support.