There is, however, another possibility. Accordingly, Iran has concluded that the danger of an Israeli preemption of the Iranian program has been neutralized. Between Israel’s fears of the responses from Iran and its allies and Washington’s stern objections to an Israeli military undertaking the probability of an attack is virtually nonexistent, or so Tehran may now believe.

The first element in this Iranian assessment, which dismisses the chances of an Israeli attack, must be linked to the new weapons in the hands of Hezbollah. After all, while Israel is supposedly threatening pinpoint attacks on Iranian nuclear targets, the country’s enemies can target not only most of Israel’s key strategic installations but have openly adopted a strategy of indiscriminate rocket attacks on Israeli cities. Moreover, the recent statements by some of the leaders of the regional radical axis that for the first time openly promised a theater-wide war in case Israel attacks must be seen as another component in Iran’s growing conviction that its enriched uranium cache is safe wherever it is located.

The second element in Iran’s confident assessment of an American ban on any military action is the seemingly endless procession of U.S. emissaries who have either arrived already in Israel, or are slated to, ostensibly to warn Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against “surprising” Washington. Tehran fully understands that the last thing President Barack Obama wants is a third front on top of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

By publicizing its move Iran in effect threw down a gauntlet, fully expecting Israel not to pick it up and thus lose credibility and standing vis-à-vis its enemies. Israel’s inaction would be the final confirmation of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s longtime thesis that -despite having a nuclear weapon and the strongest air force in the region – it is weaker than a spider’s web. The Mullahs expect that Israel’s display of impotence will elevate the status of Iran and pay handsome dividends both domestically and internationally.