New intelligence estimate about Iran on the way?

The Cable is hearing from congressional sources, diplomats and former officials that the Obama administration is getting ready to finalize a National Intelligence Estimate that is expected to back off some of the conclusions of the 2007 report on Iran’s nuclear program.

The new NIE has been anticipated for a while, but now it seems to be close to release. Sources said they are being told that there will be no declassified version this time, but they expect the new estimate will declare that Iran is on a path toward weaponizing nuclear material.

Many feel the administration needs to correct the record by somehow disavowing the intelligence community’s controversial 2007 conclusion: “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.”

The new estimate might not directly contradict that judgment, but it could say that although the intelligence community has not determined that Iran has made the strategic decision to build a nuclear weapon, Iran is seen to be working on the components of a device, a parsing that some would see as too clever by half.

David Albright, a nuclear weapons expert and president of the Institute of Science and International Security, said the administration might want to avoid a lengthy and complicated public debate about the estimate’s conclusions. “They owe it to us to provide clarification of their position publicly,” he said. The NIE is compiled by the National Intelligence Council, but rollout and classification decisions are ultimately made by Dennis C. Blair, the director of national intelligence. Blair’s office declined to comment.