Despite the looming confrontation, behind the scenes, Iran’s opposition appears to be exploring the possibility of a compromise. But the difficulty is that any compromise would almost certainly have to involve Khamenei moving against Ahmadinejad, initiating a process within the political system that would involve the incumbent either being ousted or having his power considerably diluted. The leaders of the opposition risk losing the backing of their supporters in the streets if they are too willing to reconcile themselves with Ahmadinejad, given all the blood that has been spilled over the past six months.

Has Ahmadinejad become enough of a liability for Khamenei and his allies to move against him? The President faces a difficult term ahead, even without the unresolved question of his legitimacy. Critics of his government say it squandered billions during his first term on expensive social programs intended to buy political support. Now faced with increasing sanctions and lower oil revenues, the government is about to launch a new program to wean the economy from unsustainable subsidies, especially on energy — a move that is almost certainly going to be unpopular.

But much depends on just where the center of gravity in Iran’s regime lies in the postelection political landscape. Ahmadinejad spent much of his first term filling positions with allies from the Revolutionary Guard, the élite military force, and they returned the favor by orchestrating the postelection crackdown. It’s not clear now just who calls the shots. Also, concerned with the danger posed to the regime’s survival by internal strife, hard-liners may be tempted to pick a fight with the West to create a pretext for cracking down harder at home.