The stability of the [IND: Persian] Gulf is further threatened by the deepening international crisis over Iran’s insistence on continuing its illicit nuclear programme. Just how the West intends to respond to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s intransigence is being hotly debated among the world’s leading powers. At the very least, Iran can expect further sanctions, which will further increase the regime’s international isolation.

In the past, Iran has responded to such pressure by activating the proxy militia groups that it has established throughout the Middle East, including the Gulf. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have been particularly active in Bahrain, where the Sunni Muslim al-Khalifah dynasty presides over a population that is predominantly Shia Muslim. They have backed numerous plots to overthrow the ruling family and establish an Iranian-style Islamic government on the island, which provides the main Gulf base for the US Fifth Fleet.

Even today, some officials blame Iranian meddling for the anti-government riots that take place almost every week in Bahrain’s Shia slums. The security forces are particularly concerned about the presence in London of leading dissidents, whom they accuse of encouraging the unrest through internet message boards.

Add to this Iran’s deliberate intimidation tactics, which include regular tests of medium-range missiles designed to attack its smaller neighbours in the Gulf. Bahrain and its neighbours have demonstrated a remarkable resilience and resourcefulness in tackling the region’s financial crisis. But they will need similar fortitude to withstand the very different challenges the future is almost certain to bring.