The ongoing internal and external developments facing the Iranian Islamic Revolution could very much be the natural course almost all revolutions experienced over the past few centuries. Successful revolutions have historically came to an end either through internal movements – usually known as correctional (or reformist) movements – or through wars with external powers. The course of evolution for each revolution is dependent on how the leadership can keep up with the expectations and aspirations of the public.

A good example of a revolution that witnessed a successful internal movement that adjusted its ideology and shifted its focus on the inside was the Chinese Maoist Revolution. During the years of rule of the father of the Chinese revolution Chairman Mao Zedong, the Red Guards rejected all forms of liberalism and capitalism and exported the Maoist version of communism to neighboring Asian states as well as Europe and were often directly and indirectly involved in wars with the West in North Korea, Vietnam and Cambodia. China saw itself as a base for all Asian communists in their fight against the West. But after Mao’s death the Chinese leadership witnessed an internal power struggle that brought Chairman Deng Xiaoping into power in 1978. With the takeover of Deng, the relationship between China and other communist Asian states drifted apart because the focus of the revolution turned inward.

Iran nowadays seems to stand at a cross-road as the internal struggle has taken on more a violent and open form. The two sides (conservatives and reformists) do not appear able to coexist anymore even when one side is almost fully purged from public offices…As the leadership becomes less tolerant of the opposition and uses harsh deterrent measures against the reformists, the bolder the opposition movement seems to get. There appears to be a growing anti-regime movement that could be benefiting from reformists losing hope of the Islamic Republic regime and now seeking its collapse. If the existing reformist leaders are either killed or jailed there would be a strong possibility that a new young and radical leadership would emerge that would advocate the downfall of the regime instead of reforming it.  IND:  This is one reason why some in the regime hesitate coming down harder on the reformist leaders.  They fear instead of suppressing the movement such a step could lead to the rise of secular democratic leaders who don’t believe reforming the regime is possible.  For now, these potential leaders are giving deference to the top three but with them gone the may rise to the top.