There are fears that the Iranian regime may intensify the crackdown on the opposition in the next few weeks.

Emigre analyst Farrokh Negahdar told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that Khamenei’s top priority is to ensure his own survival and that of the system, and for that reason he is still weighing the pros and cons of a complete crusade against the opposition.

The officially supported and orchestrated campaign that started last week to persecute the opposition across Iran leaves few doubts that Khamenei is just waiting for the moment to give the “order to open fire.”

In the short term, an even harsher crackdown is foreseeable if the opposition presses ahead with the planned demonstrations for the month of Muharram — and many bet they will.

But whether or not that would help Ahmadinejad and his mentor, Ayatollah Khamenei, in the medium term, is unclear. Mohsen Sazegara, an emigre opposition activist now addressing Iranians in daily video analyses, predicts that “millions will come out in demonstrations.” He admits that “it won’t break yet the neck of the regime as the Muharram demonstrations 31 years ago did with the Shah regime…but it will clearly demonstrate to the Iranian and world community the illegitimacy of the regime and the fact that they want a change.”