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Chain reaction
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“Settlement freeze in exchange for Iran sanctions” – that was the gist of an article published in Britain’s The Guardian newspaper on Wednesday, in advance of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with U.S. envoy George Mitchell in London later that day.
The two discussed the anticipated announcement next month by U.S. President Barack Obama on the imminent renewal of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, as well as the subject of construction in West Bank settlements and gestures from Arab states toward normalization with Israel. The issue of Iran’s nuclear program, however, hovered in the background of their meeting.
After stripping the expected rhetorical flourishes from Obama’s gesture – the talk of peace and quotations from the Koran – its strategic purpose is laid bare: the formation of a regional coalition against Iran, led by the United States and with the participation of Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the small Gulf states. Every member will have to contribute something: the United States, the diplomatic cover and the military umbrella; Israel, the removal of checkpoints and a freeze on building in West Bank settlements; the PA, the renewal of the peace talks; Egypt and Saudi Arabia, intra-Arab legitimacy; while the Gulf and Maghreb states are to agree to an Israeli diplomatic presence on their soil and overflights by El Al Israel Airlines in their skies. The discussion is about the details – the scope of the construction freeze and the normalization – not the essence.
The linkage between the settlements and Iran’s nuclear program cannot be taken for granted. Even if not a single new apartment is built in Ariel, Psagot or Ma’ale Levona, and even if all the settlements are dismantled, this will not stop the spinning of the centrifuges at the Natanz uranium-enrichment facility. The converse is also true: The elimination of Iran’s nuclear program, or even the collapse of Iran’s Islamic regime and its replacement with a pro-Western, pro-Zionist government will not end the conflict over the Land of Israel.
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