China has overtaken the European Union to become Iran’s largest trading partner, according to a new analysis of the commercial ties between the two countries.

The growing business links between Beijing and Tehran underline China’s reluctance to agree to any further economic sanctions on Iran as western countries escalate their campaign to contain the country’s nuclear ambitions.

Official figures say the EU remains Tehran’s largest commercial partner, with trade totalling $35bn in 2008, compared with $29bn with China.

But this number disguises the fact that much of Iran’s trade with the United Arab Emirates consists of goods channelled to or from China. Majid-Reza Hariri, deputy head of the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce, said that transhipments to China accounted for more than half of Tehran’s $15bn (€10.9bn, £9.6bn) trade with the UAE.

When this is taken into account, China’s trade with Iran totals at least $36.5bn, which could be more than with the entire EU bloc. No definite conclusion is possible because it is unclear how much of Iran’s trade with Europe is channelled via the UAE.

Iran imports consumer goods and machinery from China and exports oil, gas, and petrochemicals.

Today, China depends on Iran for 11 per cent of its energy needs, according to the chamber. Go to Financial Times.

WP: US, Europe condemn human rights abuses in Iran The United States and the European Union are calling on Iran to end human rights abuses against its citizens.  In a joint statement Monday, the U.S. and E.U. condemn the large scale detentions, mass trials and denial of the right to peaceful expression following last year’s disputed presidential elections. They say they are particularly concerned about the potential for further violence and repression in the days leading up to Thursday’s anniversary of the Islamic Republic’s founding.  Opposition leaders have called for a fresh round of demonstrations Thursday.  The statement comes amid a report out of Tehran that a former deputy foreign minister has been sentenced to six years in prison for conspiring to “disturb security” and spread propaganda against Iran.

ICHR Iran: Student Facing Execution for Throwing Rocks The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran today strongly condemned the prosecution of a young student activist, Mohammad Amin Valian, under the charge of Moharebeh, or “enmity against God,” which is punishable by death and called the charges “grossly disproportionate.”  At least nine other protestors have been sentenced to death in similar unfair trials and are at risk of imminent execution. Five other protestors, including Valian, were prosecuted last week and face the death penalty if convicted. The main pieces of evidence used to convict the twenty-year old student are photographs showing him throwing rocks during Ashura protests.

ICHR Iran: Shirin Ebadi: Politics Rule the Iranian Judiciary The 2003 Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi, who heads Center for Human Rights Defenders in Iran, was interviewed by International Campaign for Human Rights. Regarding Iranian Judiciary’s recent actions including executions of two political dissidents and group execution sentence for several other protesters she said: “Unfortunately, the Iranian Judiciary has fallen short of justice and politics are determining its core and actions now. This is why we are now witnessing sentences which are even contradictory to Islamic Republic’s very own approved laws. In other words, the government approves laws which it refuses to obey itself. They are accusing people of heretics, moharebeh, when all they have done is to participate in street protests or sending an electronic mail. In some cases all the email contained was a piece of news. They won’t let suspects’ attorneys attend trials and appoint public defenders for suspects. These are all examples of actions which contradict The Criminal Case Review Policies and demonstrate that trials are political. When politics enters a courtroom, justice leaves that courtroom.”

ICHR  Iran: Using Photographs of Protests Outside Iran to Intimidate Arriving Passengers at the Airport Authorities at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran have been collecting photographs of Iranians in protest gatherings outside the country. These Iranians have participated in gatherings to show solidarity with Iranians inside Iran for condemning violations of human rights in Iran. When leaving IKI Airport, some Iranian citizens have been randomly taken to rooms and after being questioned about the country and city to which they were traveling, their faces have been checked against available photographs in attempts to identify Iranians who have attended such gatherings.

Several people who have recently returned from Tehran told International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran that at Imam Khomeini Airport, they spent a few hours with anxiety as their faces were compared to available photographs. One of these individuals who has recently returned from Tehran told International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran: “…after I checked in my luggage, an officer asked me to follow him to the side entrance door. In the room I noticed people sitting behind monitors showing hundreds of faces on them. They were not passport photographs, but photographs of people in different gatherings. In one photograph a girl had raised a fist and in another a young man was yelling.” These individuals said that at departure time, officers asked the names of destination states and cities and when they took people to the room where they checked for photographs, they searched on the cities where the individual was heading in order to see whether he or she had participated in rallys.

RFE: Preparing For 1979 Anniversary: Internet Disruption And New Dumpsters A video has been posted on opposition websites that shows how in central Tehran plastic dumpsters are being replaced by tougher metal ones. During the street protests of recent months, protesters were seen setting dumpsters on fire and using them as shields between themselves and security forces.   The replacement of the dumpsters could be an attempt to counter street protests and prevent protesters from setting them on fire.   Another video posted on opposition websites shows loudspeakers being installed on Vali Street, where demonstrations are expected, apparently in order to dampen the voices of the opposition protesters.

Hard-line blogs have also been issuing warning to the Green opposition movement. Here, a revolution anniversary poster on a hard-line blog that seem to warn the opposition that it will be crushed. “On February 11 we will be waiting for you,” it says, adding that the “Iranian nation” will deal with “the rioters” in the streets.Citing “reliable sources,” another blog reported that government programmers have designed a new computer program that allows the identification of the faces of people who attempt to hide them with masks, as some opposition protesters have done during the street protests. The blog claims that modern cameras that have entered Iran “suspiciously” and are being distributed among the Basij forces, who plan to use them on February 11.

Spiegel: ‘The West Must Impose Sanctions on Iran This Month’ Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki rebuffed a uranium swap plan proposed by the West. In Tehran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered his scientists to begin enriching uranium to 20 percent. It is now time to impose tough new sanctions, say German commentators.

Spiegel: Several Federal Police Had Dangerous Liaisons in Iran The scandal involving federal police officers at the German embassy in Tehran who allegedly had affairs with an Iranian woman is expanding. The woman, who apparently holds both Iranian and British citizenship, is currently sitting in the dock in a show trial.

WorldFocus: Video: Iran moves steadily closer to nuclear power goals

The more radical elements within the Revolutionary Guard, including its commander, Major-General Mohammad Ali Jafari, have publicly argued for a “Chinese solution” — a bloodbath modelled on the Tiananmen massacre of students in Beijing in 1989. Others, including the high command of the regular Army, have warned against such repression. The Khomeinist religious and political Establishment is equally divided between the “eradicators” and the “conciliators”. Millions of Iranians are waiting and watching to see which side is likely to prevail.

While it is difficult to predict the behaviour of a regime drunk on its own apocalyptic rhetoric, the “Chinese solution” is unlikely to work in Iran. Mr Khamenei and Mr Ahmadinejad are incapable of uniting the ruling establishment in the same way as Deng Xiaoping was in 1989. Nor could they rely on political machinery such as the Chinese Communist Party.

More importantly, they cannot be certain about the loyalty of the regular Army, which has suffered immensely under the Khomeinist regime, while the Revolutionary Guard could split into several factions. At the same time, the regime is also facing mounting opposition from the Shia clergy that could sap the basis of its claim to legitimacy. During the past few weeks, more than a dozen top ayatollahs, including some close to the regime, have publicly broken with it, warning against any bloody repression.

The history of Shia-ism is full of schism provoked by political disputes disguised as religious differences. Today Khomeinism faces the risk of becoming yet another isolated fanatical sect such as the Akhbaris, the Heydaris, the Nematis and scores of other long-forgotten factions.

The regime has already executed two pro-democracy activists and sentenced nine others to death. These actions, designed to terrorise the people, appear to have had no effect as all opposition groups are vowing to continue the struggle for an Iranian republic.

For the first time in 30 years, a substantial segment of Iranian society, perhaps even a majority, is prepared for a democratic experience. Today the mood in Iran is very much like the one that made possible the Constitutional Revolution of 1906, and the creation of the first democratic parliament in the Muslim world. Rather than chasing the illusion of stopping the nuclear clock in Iran, the outside world should take greater notice of the clock of regime change. Go to Times UK.

NY Times: Iran’s Khatami Urges People to Attend Rallies Reformist former president Mohammad Khatami urged people on Monday to attend rallies marking the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, when the opposition is expected to revive anti-government protests.  Opposition leaders Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi earlier this month called on their supporters to attend the nationwide events on Thursday, raising the prospect of new clashes with the security forces.  “God willing, all people will take part in the (February 11) marches, with the common points of defending the revolution and human rights, as the principal owners of the revolution,” Khatami told ILNA news agency.  “In our reform-seeking movement, we have neither fixed hope on foreigners nor hold the belief that they are benevolent towards us,” he was quoted as saying.  “If there is a dispute it is an internal one and if in certain instances foreign governments take advantage of the conditions they do it uninvited,” Khatami added.

Mousavi FB coverage of same:  Khatami then added: “Our expectation from all the influential figures of the country is fairness. We defend people’s right and selection. For all of us, as we have announced before, the goal is to achieve a mechanism for holding healthy elections without any dispute so that people could trust that they can reinstated their rights.”  Khatami reinstated: “We believe that the government should stop the insults, destructions and arrests. Those who are detained care for the establishment and should be released immediately; and in a less intense environment the pressure on independent media should be eased.”

LA Times: Iran lawyer haunted by young man’s execution Lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh is filled with rage over the treatment of her client, 20-year-old Arash Rahmanipour, who was not defended in court and then was quietly put to death.  The defendant met with his lawyer once for 15 minutes before he was sentenced to death and hanged.  When the lawyer complained to authorities, they ignored her. When she tried to enter the courtroom where he was being tried, they threatened her with arrest. And when she spoke out publicly at what she described as a gross miscarriage of justice, they shut off her cellphone.  IND:  Excellent piece.

LA Times: Iran to build 10 nuclear plants, beef up military Iranian officials trumpeted new nuclear and military ambitions Monday in the face of domestic political discord and stepped up international talk of tightening economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, announced that Tehran has informed the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog that it intends to launch construction of 10 new nuclear fuel plants in the Persian calendar year starting March 2010 and begin producing 20% enriched uranium to provide fuel for a Tehran medical reactor.Up until now, Iran has only produced reactor-grade 3.5% enriched uranium and has managed to build only one functioning nuclear fuel plant.

Reuters: New sanctions on Iran are only path left: Gates Iran has rejected Western overtures and the international community has no choice but to move toward imposing new sanctions over its nuclear program, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Monday.  “We must still try and find a peaceful way to resolve this issue. The only path that is left to us at this point, it seems to me, is that pressure track but it will require all of the international community to work together,” Gates said at a joint news conference with French Defense Minister Herve Morin.

WP: Iran sentences former deputy FM to 6 years in jail A semiofficial news agency says a court has sentenced a former deputy foreign minister to six years in prison after convicting him of security charges. Monday’s ISNA agency report quotes Mohsen Aminzadeh’s defense lawyer Abbas Shiri as saying his client was convicted of conspiring to “disturb security” and spreading propaganda against the Islamic establishment.  Aminzadeh served during former president Mohammad Khatami’s time in office between 1997 and 2005. He is among the most senior former officials in a group of more 100 people on trial since August for their alleged role in street protests after a disputed presidential election in June.

Reuters: Iran arrests 10 journalists, holds total 55 – sites The total number of journalists in detention in Iran has risen to at least 55 after the arrest of 10 in recent days, reformist websites reported on Monday.  Kaleme, the website of defeated candidate Mirhossein Mousavi, said nine journalists and photojournalists had been arrested in the past two days, taking the total to 55. Those recently detained included Akbar Montajabi, assistant editor-in-chief of the magazine “Iran Dokht”, which is close to Medhi Karroubi, another defeated candidate. Parleman News, the website of parliament’s minority reformist minority, said a female journalist had been arrested on Sunday. She was not among those named by Kaleme and it was not clear if she was among the 55.

Signforchange: Women Fight Polygamy Proposal Iranian women’s groups and other rights organisations are fighting a much discussed proposed law which they say would encourage polygamy by allowing a man to take a second wife without the permission of the first in certain circumstances.  Although Sharia law permits a man to take up to four wives, polygamy is not widely practiced in Iran and women have enjoyed greater rights and freedoms than in some other Muslim countries. At present, an Iranian man needs his first wife’s permission to take a second.  A so-called Family Protection Law, proposed by the government in 2008, said a man could marry a second wife on condition only that he could afford both wives financially. The parliament dropped that clause following a wave of opposition from women but is now reconsidering a different version of the provision.

Reuters: Revolution day will put Iran’s disunity on show Iranians are struggling over the legacy and even the legitimacy of an Islamic revolution that triumphed 31 years ago this week. No compromise is in sight.  Some conservative politicians opposed to Ahmadinejad have proposed differentiating opposition “critics” from “rioters”, but the president, backed by the powerful Revolutionary Guard organisation and its Basij auxiliary, has given no ground.  In December Mousavi dropped his previous insistence on cancelling the June election, setting out opposition demands that seemed to leave some room for a deal with the authorities.  But he hardened his tone last week, saying repression showed that the revolution had not achieved its goals. “Filling the prisons and brutally killing protesters show that the roots of … dictatorship remain from the monarchist era,” he declared.

LA Times: Opposition and hard-liners get ready for 22 Bahman confrontations Iran’s hard-line government and the green-themed opposition are gearing up for another confrontation Thursday, this time on the 22nd day of the Persian calendar month of Bahman, the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.This weekend the Coordinating Council of Reform Front, a coalition that brings together 17 moderate political groups, called on supporters to head to the streets Thursday, traditionally a time of pro-government rallies.”We’ll come on 22 Bahman to show that the green movement is intertwined with national and religious values and it insists on its rightful demands stipulated in the constitution,” said a notice in Persian posted to several websites. “We’ll come to make our voices heard by our comrades, friends, rivals and enemies — to tell them that the green movement is independent, and it will spare no efforts to revive and protect the values, implement the law, ensure liberty for the nation and save the society. … We’ll call for return to ideals and principles instead of jail, violence and confrontation with the nation.”

CNN: Iran marks revolution anniversary amid ongoing dissent Iran will this week celebrate the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution — a day that marked the end of the country’s western-backed monarchy and the start of an Islamic republic.  Some experts say the revolution was also a catalyst for the spread of Islamic fundamentalism throughout the Middle East and South Asia.  This key date in Iran’s history comes amid protests by the opposition after last year’s disputed presidential election won by incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  The so-called Green Movement has been protesting for social justice, freedom and democracy in demonstrations throughout the country since the June polls — using slogans that are often identical to those heard during the 1979 Islamic revolution.  Two leading Iranian opposition leaders have called on supporters to protest on Thursday, the day of the anniversary.

WP: Iran launches production lines for unmanned planes Iran has launched two production lines to build unmanned aircraft with surveillance and attack capabilities, the defense minister announced Monday.It also announced that Iran would soon deploy a missile air defense system more powerful than the advanced Russian S-300 system Tehran has ordered from Moscow in 2007 but has yet to receive. The state television quoted Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi as saying the unmanned aircraft would be able to carry out surveillance as well as offensive tasks with high precision and a long range. The two types of aircraft, or drones, are named Ra’d (thunder) and Nazir (herald), with the former possessing offensive capabilities.

WP: Obama could play ‘war card’ to win reelection Palin suggested that if President Obama “played the war card” by declaring war on Iran in the next two years, the political landscape would change dramatically in his favor. “There wouldn’t be as much passion to make sure that he doesn’t serve another four years,” Palin said.  She said her knowledge about foreign policy and domestic economic issues has significantly increased since she was a vice presidential candidate. “My focus has been enlarged,” Palin said.

Video: Iranians protest around Europe

BBC: Iran confuses again with ‘further enrichment’

NPR: Iran To Begin Enriching Uranium

On Feb 7th about 1000 students of Sharif University of Technology (Tehran) held a gathering and chanted “God is Great” on campus in protest to continuation of detention of their classmates  YouTube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQeCZXzqIV4

The Islamic Iran Participation Front (reformist) by issuing a statement on the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution invited everyone to accompany the leaders of the Green Movement, Mousavi, Karoubi and Khatami by participating in the Feb 11th (22 Bahman) rally. In this statement it was stressed to supporters of the Green Movement to actively and calmly while carrying Green symbols participate in this demonstration and by chanting slogans such as “God is great” and “Independence, Freedom and the Islamic Republic” and with patience by avoiding violence don’t give any excuse to the authoritarians for more repression and make this day a day of people’s will to reinstated their right to chose their density and the complete implementation of the constitution and open the way for reform in the country. In this statement the Participation Front praised all those who because of their true beliefs are imprisoned, threatened or lost their lives and stressed that active participation in Feb 11th rally is the continuation of their path.

The minority fraction of the parliament, reformist, by issuing a statement while inviting everyone to participate in Feb 11th (22 Bahman) rally on the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, asked the authorities to precisely follow the constitution and other extracted laws and to make special efforts in reinstating people’s rights and by ensuring people’s right to chose and by holding the institution of power accountable in front of the nation, strengthen the national unity and sense of hope in the society.

Ahmad Montazeri, son of late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, in an open letter to Ezatollah Zarghami, the pro-Ahmadinejad head of the state-run TV and Radio channels who is appointed by the supreme leader, protested to the TV programs that showed biased and deceitful reports against the noble character of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. In this letter reads: “It has been more than 20 years that one-sided and biased programs are being broadcasted on national TV and unjust accusations and lies are being said [against late Ayatollah Montazeri] but never his of his office’s responses [to these lies] were broadcasted and now even after the 40th day anniversary of the passing of the late Ayatollah you see still the urge to attack him unfairly! Isn’t this by itself a proof of oppression against late Ayatollah?”

Mostafa Tajzadeh, former deputy minister of the ministry of interior and senior member of Mojahedin of the Revolution spoke one month before the election, expressing his concerns about the massive transpositions in the interior ministry of AhmadiNejad. He also said that the only missing freedom in Iran during the time of Shah was political freedom, as well as the freedom of the press and opinion, and the main goal of the revolution was to gain this kind of freedom. Go to original article.

Despite the regime’s threats, the Iranian people are determined to stand up for their freedom on Bahman 22 or Feb. 11.  Iran News Digest salutes the brave Iranian people.  May God keep them safe.

The coming week may prove another defining moment for Barack Obama on the world stage, and a major test of his failing leadership. As tens of thousands of anti-government demonstrators prepare to take to the streets of Tehran on February 11 in defiance of the security forces on the 31st anniversary of the Iranian revolution, the president will have to make it clear whose side he is on – the brutal Islamist dictatorship or dissidents fighting for their freedom. He can no longer sit on the fence as a dispassionate neutral observer. As the leader of the free world President Obama has a responsibility to speak out in support of those who are bravely laying down their lives in opposition to a dictatorship that has emerged as America’s most dangerous state-based threat.

Until now, the president has remained largely silent over the brutal suppression of the Iranian protesters, including the murder, rape, and beating of hundreds of men and women who have dared to speak out against the regime. He barely mentioned the Iranian protests in his State of the Union address, refused to condemn the fraudulent re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last June, and took days to issue a half-hearted statement when mass protests flared again last December. Even his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, who took a tough stance towards Tehran during her election campaign, has been almost as quiet as a trappist monk.

The Obama administration’s shameful appeasement of the Iranian regime has been a spectacular failure, which has significantly undermined Obama’s standing on the world stage and demonstrated the bankruptcy of his strategy of engagement. It is not too late however for the president to change course and show some backbone, both in confronting the mounting Iranian nuclear threat as well as by backing those bravely fighting for freedom against the Mullahs.

American leadership is not about currying favour with Washington’s enemies. It is forged in the defence of freedom and through standing up to the forces of tyranny. This week Barack Obama has a major opportunity to take a clear stand against a sadistic Islamist theocracy, by sending a clear message that the American people are united with the protesters, and will support their drive for freedom. He should follow the example and courage of Ronald Reagan when he aggressively confronted and defeated the Soviet Empire, and actively advance the cause of liberty in Iran and across the Middle East. Go to Telegraph.

CNN: State media: Iran MPs want Moussavi prosecuted

More than 150 Iranian members of parliament have signed letters advocating the prosecution of former presidential candidate Mir Hossein Moussavi, state media reported Saturday.

Mohammad Taghi Rahbar, the head of parliament’s clerical faction, said lawmakers who have signed the two letters of complaint against Moussavi have done their “duty, which was to defend the integrity of the system” and filed complaints against the leaders of what he called a “conspiracy,” official news agency Iran Newspaper’s Web site (INN) reported.

“People want to see the convictions of the leaders of the conspiracy, because they are rioters and have abused the peoples lives and property,” he said, according to INN.

The letter come after Moussavi, the Iranian opposition leader and symbol of anti-government fervor, lashed out against Iranian authorities last week, saying remnants of the “tyranny” and “dictatorship” that prevailed under the toppled Shah of Iran’s regime persist today.

AFP: Internet down in Iran ahead of demos

Iran said on Sunday its Internet connections will remain slow this week due to technical problems, ahead of anticipated protests by opposition supporters.

Connections have been slow since last week and some email accounts have been unavailable for several hours each day.

“The cause of the reduced Internet speed in recent days is that part of the fibre-optic network is damaged,” Communications Minister Reza Taghipour told Iran’s state broadcaster.

“The breakage will be repaired by next week and the Internet speed will be back to normal,” he added.

The Iranian week runs from Saturday to Friday.

Taghipour said the undersea optic fibre across the Gulf between the Iranian port of Jask and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates had been damaged due to shipping traffic and anchoring.

He also acknowledged that text messaging in Iran had been disrupted, blaming it on “changing software.”

Internet connections have slowed to a crawl on past protest days and mobile phone networks been disrupted.

WSJ: Iranian President Orders Nuclear Program Progress

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered his country’s nuclear agency to begin enriching uranium for use in a medical-research reactor, ratcheting up Tehran’s defiance over Western demands that it curb its nuclear ambitions.

The statement was carried Sunday on state TV as the country celebrates the 31st anniversary of the Iranian revolution. It came amid a flurry of announcements in which Mr. Ahmadinejad has attempted to project an image of strength, even as the regime faces the threat of further domestic unrest later this week.

It also seemed to contradict Mr. Ahmadinejad’s statements last week that Iran was willing to embrace a deal brokered last year by the International Atomic Energy Agency for Iran to ship the bulk of its lower enriched uranium overseas to be further enriched to the 20% purity level needed for its medical reactor.

Speaking at a laser-technology exhibition on Sunday in Tehran, Mr. Ahmadinejad called on Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s atomic agency, who was sitting in the audience, to begin enriching uranium to 20% purity. Mr. Ahmadinejad said Iran “was still open to negotiations on the issue” with the international community, according to state media. Mr. Ahmadinejad and other officials have threatened before to enrich the fuel on their own if a deal with the IAEA fell though.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday he believed there was still time for sanctions to work to halt Iran’s nuclear program despite the Iranian president’s decision. Asked at a news conference in Rome whether he believed the president’s order to produce higher-grade uranium made military action more likely, Mr. Gates said that as long as the international community is able to present a united front, sanctions can still be effective.

“If the international community will stand together and bring pressure to bear on the Iranian government, I believe there is still time for sanctions and pressure to work,” Mr. Gates said following meetings with his Italian counterpart. “But we must all work together.”

The Washington Post’s coverage of the same:  While the 20 percent threshhold is substantially below the 90 percent plus needed to make fissile warhead material, any move by Iran to enrich to 20 percent would raise international alarm bells because it would bring Iran substantially closer to weapons capacity.

That is because enriching from 20 percent to weapons grade can be done much more quickly and with much less equipment than from the low-enriched stockpile Iran now posesses.

David Albright, whose Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security tracks suspected proliferators, said that it would take 2,000 centrifuges about a year to turn Iran’s 1.8 ton stockpile of 3.5 percent uranium into enough weapons grade uranium for one warhead. But he said it would only take 500 to 1,000 centrifuges, and half a year, to move from 20 percent to 90 percent plus enriched material.

By enriching its present 3.5 percent uranium stockpile to 20 percent, “it would be going most of the rest of the way to weapon-grade uranium,” he said.

CNN: Clinton defends Obama’s engagement strategy on Iran, N. Korea

In an interview broadcast Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union, Clinton replied with a blunt “no” when asked by CNN Senior Political Correspondent Candy Crowley if Iran had taken up Obama on his offer in his inaugural address last year to “extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.”

“But the fact is, because we engaged, the rest of the world has really begun to see Iran the way we see it,” Clinton said in the interview conducted Thursday.

Clinton pointed out that a year ago, much of the world, including Russia, did not share the U.S. perception that Iran’s nuclear program posed a major threat.

Now there is greater awareness of the threat, Clinton said, due to “a very slow and steady diplomacy plus the fact that we had a two-track process.”

“Yes, we reached out on engagement to Iran, but we always had the second track which is that we would have to try to get the world community to take stronger measures if they didn’t respond on the engagement front,” Clinton said.

On Friday, Iran’s foreign minister had said he believed a solution will be reached over the proposed deal to export uranium for enrichment abroad, as demanded by Western nations worried that Tehran plans to use its program to build nuclear weapons.

However, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Sunday he had ordered Iran’s atomic chief to increase the nation’s enrichment of uranium at home. Ahmadinejad did not set a deadline for the increase.

AFP: Al-Qaeda threat to US greater than Iran: Clinton

The Iranian nuclear threat is real but the United States faces an even greater danger from Al-Qaeda, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned in an interview Sunday.

“In terms of a country, obviously a nuclear-armed country like North Korea or Iran pose both a real or a potential threat,” Clinton told CNN’s “State of the Union”, making it clear the Iranians don’t yet possess an atomic weapon.

“But I think that most of us believe the greater threats are the trans-national non-state networks,” she said, referring to Al-Qaeda and its affiliates in Afghanistan, North Africa, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Clinton voiced concerns about Al-Qaeda’s level of “connectivity” and warned that Osama bin Laden’s followers were increasing the sophistication of the attacks they were planning.

While Al-Qaeda was not getting any stronger and its capacity had been “degraded” in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Clinton cautioned the terror network was evolving to become “more creative, more flexible, more agile.

“They are unfortunately a very committed, clever, diabolical group of terrorists who are always looking for weaknesses and openings and we just have to stay alert.”

Reuters: Iran sets up national energy fund, oil minister says

Iran has established an energy fund backed by the Central Bank and other Iranian banks to help finance investments in the sector, Oil Minister Massoud Mirkazemi said on Sunday.

“The National Energy Fund, with the help of the resources of four local banks and the Central Bank, has been established to help finance major parts of the oil industry’s activities,” the official IRNA news agency quoted Mirkazemi as saying.

“Several rounds of talks were held in this regard and it was approved by the president (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad),” he said.

Mirkazemi said the fund would pave the way for both local and foreign firms to take part in Iranian energy projects.

“By using domestic resources we would pave the way for the presence of local firms in oil and gas projects, but at the same time we won’t block attracting foreign resources,” he said.

“It is necessary to invest in the country’s oil and gas development projects, particularly in joint fields with the neighbouring states,” said Mirkazemi, who did not provide any figures.

Washington Post: Report: Iran detains 7 suspected of spying for US

Iran’s state media says Tehran has arrested seven people linked to the U.S.-funded Radio Farda and accused some of them of working for American spy agencies.

State radio and the official IRNA news agency reported Sunday the suspects played a key role in provoking protesters during a violent anti-government demonstration in Tehran in late December.

The report, based on an Intelligence Ministry statement, claimed the suspects were trained in “sabotage.”

It did not identify the suspects or say when they were detained.

Radio Farda broadcasts in Farsi into Iran. It is based in Prague, Czech republic, and Washington, D.C.

LA Times: The lies of Iran, in pictures

In 1979, the Iranian people wanted to believe the lies that followed her sons’ deaths because they came from a government the people had recently ushered into power. Today, she says, the lies that followed Agha-Soltan’s death have fallen on deaf ears because they came from a government so many Iranians had voted to remove from power — only to see their votes ignored. And so, says Nahid, the government has reason to be scared.

Haaretz: Iran announces successful test of radar-evading aircraft

Iran has successfully tested a radar-evading aircraft, a commander said on Sunday, in the country’s latest announcement of technological advances as it marks the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution.  The semi-official Fars News Agency, citing senior air force official Aziz Nasirzadeh, said the prototype of a radar-evading aircraft named Swordfish had been test-flown. “The prototype of this aircraft … Completed all radar evading characteristics considered by us,” he said. “We are evaluating the data from the test flight and it will go into production after completing additional tests.”

Source: Mousavi FB

Ayatollah Dastgheyb, senior religious figure and a member of the Assembly of Experts, for the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution while criticising the current situation of the country said:l

Armed force should not interfere in political affairs, but it seems like today all the affairs of the country is in the hands of Revolutionary Guards and police and people have no say or will and this is the basis of the diversion from the principles of the revolution.

The anniversary of the Islamic Revolution every year is the continuation of the Islamic Revolution of 1978; and in one phrase people wanted “Independence, Freedom and Islamic Republic” and the goal of having independence was not to be depended to any foreign country not United States nor Russia nor China nor any other country

People want to have security not that anytime some attack their homes and do whatever they want, people don’t want their dignity be endangered not that any group can damage their dignity

The goal of Islamic Republic was so that the vote be the vote of the people, it means a democratic system based on people’s will same as it is in other countries

It is not possible that only one person run the country. There have to be laws and the Supreme Leader is also in the law. There have to be a law because one person cannot rule 70 million people

The armed forces, police, Revolutionary Guards and military should consider people’s benefit not their own benefit; it means that they should guard people’s lives, belongings and dignity and if a foreign country would attack they should prevent their attacks; not to sacrifice all these for their own benefit. The police should support the religious figures and scholars; and not that they do something to isolate them and leave no dignity for anyone except those who obey them

People on very anniversary of the Islamic Republic demand the exact execution of the constitution and ignoring this demand causes the diversion from the Islamic Revolution of 1978

The state-run TV and Radio should be fair and just and reflect the truth

The Guardian Council should guard the constitution which is base on the teachings of the Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him)l

The judiciary system should be independent and based on God’s laws

Source: Jaras
Date: Saturday, February 6, 2010

Dear Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi

Please accept my greetings. I have read your interview with the Kalemeh news agency, an interview which rather resembled a statement. Considering that you have issued this interview in the days leading to the anniversary of the revolution, I am assuming that this was an action with an intended purpose and would have practical positive and negative consequences. As a result I thought I would send you this open letter.

In my view, you have enumerated the problems very well, but no the solution. The spirit of you statement and your words is that we have come for a reform not for vengeance, or power or destruction. This can be the common goal and the point of unity for the current political crisis, specially considering that continuous reform in society is one of the pillars of Islamic teachings known as ‘encouraging to virtue, and discouraging from vice.’ But what path can achieve this goal easier? Go to Khordad 88.

IND:  Mr. Karroubi seems to be trying to fix the damage done from his previous comment about recognizing Ahmadinejad as the president.  Very encouraging turnaround.

In an interview with SPIEGEL, opposition politician and former president of the Iranian parliament Mahdi Karroubi, 72, discusses allegations that he has bowed under pressure from the government in Tehran.

SPIEGEL: Hojatoleslam Karroubi, you are supposed to have recognized Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president in an interview with a pro-government news agency last week. Is that true?

Mahdi Karroubi: I also told the news agency that this government is not legitimate. And I stand by my opinion that the election was not conducted correctly. But this government is now taking care of the daily political business. Even if a government comes to power via a putsch, it has to bear responsibility for what happens.

SPIEGEL: Your remark was interpreted as an offer of compromise.

Karroubi: My comments were not a step backward. There is no sign of a willingness to compromise from our side — and also not from the other side either.

SPIEGEL: What concessions do you demand from the Tehran regime in order to resolve the crisis?

Karroubi: The political prisoners must be set free, we need freedom of the press and freedom of assembly, our electoral law must be changed and a free election must take place. But then the current government would hardly be able to hold on to power.

SPIEGEL: Will you be taking part if new demonstrations are held this Thursday, Feb.11, an important national holiday which will mark the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution?

Karroubi: Just as in every year since the revolution of 1979, I will participate again this time. I will join the sea of people somewhere.

SPIEGEL: Members of the opposition have long been shouting the slogan “Down with Ahmadinejad,” while others are demanding that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei step down. Are those also your slogans?

Karroubi: When there is a large demonstration, people come together who have different points of view. Some are correct while some are misleading and wrong. Some people, like me, do not recognize the government. But we caution against slogans that call for a break with the system and give the regime a pretext to attack the people.

SPIEGEL: So you think the protesters should abandon their demand that Khamenei be deposed?

Karroubi: I do not want to lead this discussion. For us the important things are the presidential election and those freedoms that are anchored in our constitution. And the fact that this government is unworthy of running the country. IND:  Very interesting.  He dodged answering such a critical question.  He didn’t say that yes they should abandon their demand for Khamenei to be deposed.  Sometimes what you don’t say is as important as what you say.

SPIEGEL: The protesters are now going much further than you and Mousavi.

Karroubi: The slogans are getting more and more radical on both sides. That is the result of the intransigent approach of the government and its security forces.

SPIEGEL: Has the protest movement distanced itself from its leaders?

Karroubi: Mousavi and I have served the people in a number of positions of responsibility. As a result we have a certain amount of influence. But Mousavi does not have an organization behind him. I have a political party, but its work is restricted. The protest is a popular movement that is comprised of people from a wide variety of social classes and which acts independently …

SPIEGEL: … and which is now calling the entire system into question.

Karroubi: The Iranian people have a well-developed political consciousness. I place my trust in reason and people’s experience. IND:  Again he is saying that I place my trust in people’s experiences.  He seems to be ok wiht the movement leading the two leaders.  Very smart move.

SPIEGEL: The violence is escalating. Is the country in danger of descending into anarchy?

Karroubi: I fundamentally condemn any acts of violence. But naturally there are clashes when security forces take action against the people. Initially they (the protestors) allowed themselves to be beaten up. It was the other side who pushed them so far that they are now defending themselves. It is very possible that things will get out of control. But the government is responsible for that. IND:  He is even indirectly acknowledging that sometimes the protesters may have no option but to use violence for their self-defense.  He is again being more flexible and allowing the movement to lead.  He is right.  For how long can people be expected to allow the regime to beat them up?

SPIEGEL: Do you think the government will last for the full four years of its term?

Karroubi: If Ahmadinejad loses his support, then the parliament will topple him. Many conservative groups oppose him. He is only able to hold on to power with the help of the militias.

SPIEGEL: How can the West support the opposition?

Karroubi: Every movement should be based on the support of its own people. Countries that provide assistance from the outside are doing this out of their own interests. It is enough if nothing false is reported about us abroad — for example, that the movement is dead. IND:  Directed at the regime apologists in the West but especially in D.C.

SPIEGEL: Do you believe that Iran can continue as a theocracy?

Karroubi: Yes, I continue to believe in a religious state. But not one in which people celebrate during Friday prayers the fact that the children of our own people are being murdered and even announce that they will kill even more of them.  IND:  At the expense of wishful thinking projection, he had to say this.

Excerpted from an interview recorded in Tehran. Go to Spiegel.

English Translation of some tips for the protesters that I read on a blog.

1) In addition to carrying a mask, wearing dark glasses, a hat and sports clothes, make sure you carry a napkin stained with vinegar in a freezer bag in order to fight the affects of tear gas.

2) Park your vehicle away from the main routes.

3) We ask our Dr. and nurse friends to carry a small first aid kit with them.

4) Please refrain from carrying any kind of weapons (knives, brass knuckles, etc.).

5) We ask those who live close to the protest routes and businesses in the area to be prepared to give protestors refuge in the event of attacks by coup government forces.

6) The thugs will probably be transported by bus to Azadi square the night before and will spend the night in bases around Azadi. As such they will be tired, worried and on edge. The longer the protests last, the more on edge and tired they will become!

7) We must make it as difficult as possible for Ahmadinejad to give a speech on the main podium. They will probably try to bring him in the early hours to the areas around the podium (e.g the airport or buildings in the square). If they begin to promote his arrival (by distributing Sandis juice and chanting slogans in his support), creating disturbances around the square and affecting Ahmadinejad’s psychological preparation for his speech should be our FIRST priority. This will be the main priority of the Ekbatan colleagues and those who are arriving to the square via special streets.

‘8) The thugs will be covering the area around the podium from the very early hours. The longer and more unsuccessful the ceremony becomes the harder it will be for them to control the area. Our goal is to try to create enough disturbances that prolong the ceremony and lead to the potential canceling of his speech (now that would be a victory!)

9) Just as in Ashura, on the 22nd of Bahman, the thugs will be present along the routes of the protest. Anti riot security forces and thugs will also be placed in mosques, cultural centers, police stations, the Ministry of Labor, and other government centers and will be deployed as necessary. Paying attention to these locations and controlling traffic and movement in these areas is essential.

10) We ask those who live near the protest routes to prepare bags filled with rocks (approx 20 – 30) and place them near their homes, behind cars parked on the side streets or inside the garbage containers so that protestors in the area can use them to defend themselves if necessary.

11) The buildings over looking the protest routes act as a great camouflage and are ideal for taking pictures and films of the events.

12) Many of the “Sandis eating” supporters (here the reference is to those who were attracted in previous rallies with juice and food) will not attend on the 22nd of Bahman out of fear and caution. That means that the main crowd will consists of the limited number of thugs that they have been able to bus in from the surrounding areas.

13) Pay attention to your surroundings when taking pictures or films with your mobile phones and please refrain from taking pictures of people’s faces. Make sure you have an extra free memory card so that if you are searched physically or if your cell phone is checked you can switch the full card with the empty one.

14) If at all possible, attend the protests with a small group of friends or family members. In the event that they try to arrest one of the members in your group, make sure to make lots of noise and commotion in order to create the conditions for his/her freedom.

15) Here is how you recognize the thugs. Even if they wear street clothes and change their appearance, the thugs can’t hide their faces. They usually look very worried and disturbed. They stay in one area, they stare at protestors and don’t pay much attention to the general on goings of the protests. The buttons to their clothes are usually closed because of wireless devices and weapons. When they run, they usually hold their hand to their waists to make sure that their weapons and wireless devices stay in place. If you pay a little attention, you will be able to recognize them easily. They generally stand around the intersection. If you see them, try to take pictures or films as they will come in handy.

16) Since the thugs won’t have a critical mass, the loud speakers will play an important psychological role for them. As such disabling their loud speakers will be a key priority.

17) It is important to create scenarios for prolonging the protests as much as possible. Make sure you carry some food to sustain you during the long protest hours.

18) Be wise and rely on your experience so that you are not affected negatively by the false news that will most probably be broadcast by the coup government agents!

19) Please read these and other suggestions/tips carefully that are being distributed through secure channels these days and forward to others both verbally and electronically.

IND:  A very long piece with interesting insights.

Previous anniversaries have been marked by triumphant mass rallies in front of Tehran’s Azadi monument. By contrast, this year’s event threatens to be a bloody battleground witnessing a re-enactment of the extreme violence between security forces and opposition supporters that has marked several state-sanctioned public gatherings since Ahmadinejad’s allegedly fraudulent election victory, which has been the trigger for a cycle of anti-regime protest.

At the heart of such confrontational rhetoric is a battle for the very soul of the revolution and what it was designed to achieve. While supporters of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, swear loyalty to the concept of velayat-e faqih (leadership by an Islamic jurisprudence) devised by him, Mousavi and Karroubi have been suggesting with increasing boldness that the revolution has failed to free Iranians from tyranny. In fact, they claim, “leadership” by an Islamic jurisprudence has merely instituted a new form of political bondage.

Last week, in an unusually hard-hitting interview on his website, Kalemeh, Mousavi – who served as prime minister under Khomeini in the 1980s – accused the authorities of filling the prisons with “the most sincere and devoted sons of this nation” and warned that the Islamic regime was in danger of becoming a worse dictatorship than the shah’s regime. “Dictatorships in the name of religion are the worst kind of dictatorships,” he said.

“In the first years of the revolution, people were convinced the revolution had completely destroyed all those structures through which despotism and dictatorships could be recreated,” Mousavi went on. “I was one of the people who believed this. But today, I do not believe it any more. Today, we can identify those very structures that have led to despotism… Therefore I don’t believe that the Islamic revolution has achieved its goals.”

To Khamenei, who succeeded Khomeini as leader on the latter’s death in 1989, such talk is tantamount to heresy. Having publicly endorsed Ahmadinejad’s tainted election victory, Khamenei has committed himself to a course of depicting the Green Movement as puppets of a western-backed conspiracy bent on toppling the Islamic system in a “velvet revolution”.

In recent weeks, Mousavi and Karroubi had tried to bridge the schism between them and Khamenei by hinting at a compromise that would head off a final cataclysmic confrontation. They had called for changes guaranteeing free elections, a free press and the freedom to demonstrate, while demanding the unconditional release of all political prisoners. Crucially, in a step that implies acceptance of Ahmadinejad’s tenure as president – at least for now – they had also demanded that the government be held “accountable” for its actions. But these olive branches were offered before Mousavi’s latest statement, which further sharpened the divisions. Go to Guardian.

A group of exiled Iranian journalists has appealed to their foreign counterparts not to swallow the official spin about the Feb. 11 anniversary of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, which is turning into the next big confrontation between hard-liners allied with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the green-themed opposition movement.

The letter, posted in Persian, English and German to Facebook and other websites, reminds journalists visiting Iran that dozens of their Iranian colleagues remain behind bars and the government has intensified its crackdown against dissenting media.

Now, authorities are preparing to discredit and marginalize the opposition by using government resources to muster up a huge crowd in Tehran during the annual march and by barring opposition supporters from entering the area where Ahmadinejad will speak and journalists will be placed.

“After failing for eight months to achieve its goals, the illegal and fraudulent government has now prepared a new show,” the letter said. “Inviting foreign journalists to provide media coverage of the anniversary of the 1979 revolution on Feb. 11, 2010, is another part of the deceitful plan of Ahmadinejad’s illegal administration.”

The letter notes that the government has arrested, detained, harassed and restricted foreign journalists and even accused some of espionage.

“Now, it is using them, through its invitation, so they can show the world that it is a government that enjoys popular support,” the letter said. “The goal of the Iranian government is to direct journalists towards the pro-government demonstrations and prevent them from going to other locales.”

It calls on Western journalists to keep their eyes and ears open, so as not to be deceived by the government’s machinations.

“Like on other similar occasions, the coup government will attempt to control all the paths so that the only people that will come in view of your cameras will be the [pro-government militiamen] Basijis, who will present a caricature of the Iranian nation for your television cameras,” the letter said. “You will hear the protesting voice of the Iranian people clearer than ever if you look beyond the fences, cordons, and barriers and look at the real people of Iran.” Go to LA Times.

Like thousands of Iranian exiles, she will be keenly watching to see what happens on Thursday. The anniversary of Iran’s revolution is usually a triumphant affair for Iran’s leaders, as thousands of loyalists are bussed in from across the nation to parade along the wide boulevards of downtown Tehran.

State television is taken over for the day by footage of crowds enthusiastically paying obeisance to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and raising their fists to chant “Death to America” on cue.

This year, however, their conservative black chadors and pressed grey shirts will be infused with flashes of colour, if the opposition Green Movement manages to carry out their plan of gatecrashing the official celebrations.

Two opposition leaders, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, have called on their supporters to stage their own demonstrations in an effort to prove to the regime that it has lost popular support.

The anniversary will be seen by both sides as a key trial of strength. Protesters hope to revive the crowds of hundreds of thousands who marched through Tehran in the days following last June’s presidential election, complaining that the vote had been rigged. Their protests were quickly and violently crushed, but demonstrations have sporadically continued in defiance of mass arrests, beatings and show trials, to the regime’s intense embarrassment.

“The government wants to create an atmosphere of fear to stop people taking part in any more demonstrations,” said Mrs Ebadi. “I’m so sad and sorry that they issued the death penalty. I also think the same about the others who are now on trial. Their only crime is that they said they did not accept the election.”

Last week a leading commander of the Revolutionary Guards, which has taken the lead role in suppressing unrest, said anybody demonstrating this Thursday would “be severely dealt with”.

Ordinary Iranians interviewed by The Sunday Telegraph in Tehran said they were willing to answer the Green Movement’s call this week and risk the consequences.

Hanieh, a single mother whose full name cannot be given to protect her safety, said she would attend despite being beaten in previous demonstrations. “We will go in small groups and the idea is to keep our discipline and silence no matter what, and we will wear green.”

Last time she protested she saw repression from close up. “The crowd was charged by club-wielding security forces,” she said. “I was beaten repeatedly across the arms, back, ribs and legs.”

Ali, 53, joined the demonstrations against the government he helped put in power as a student protester in 1979.

“I’m not sure if these protests will go anywhere,” he said. “But I also believe we have to continue otherwise the government will think that it has bullied us into backing down. We would allow the country to move towards an even worse type of oppression.” Go to Telegraph.

ST: “Are you in any danger from the regime?” SE: “I’ve never been contacted by the regime directly. But they contacted my family and friends and said ‘wherever she is, we can get rid of her’.

“I don’t take the threat seriously. If people want to do something they don’t talk about it beforehand. Their main aim is to scare me off doing my work properly.

“Obviously, I don’t want to make my enemies happy, so I continue with my work inside the law.

“They threatened my husband and my sister that if I continue with my work they will arrest both of them. My sister was detained for three weeks. They were not tortured physically, but to arrest people because of something someone else has done is a form of emotional torture.”

ST: “Do you think people should demonstrate against the regime this Thursday?”

SE: “I believe people should take part in the demonstration. They should ask for their rights, but they should do it peacefully. Obviously the regime wants people to be violent because it gives them an excuse to crack down, and people must not give them that excuse.”

ST: “What do you think people can achieve by protesting against the regime?” SE: “The government can understand and realise how many people are against it. I hope the government realises and understands what the people want from it.

“First, one of the people’s demands is the freedom of all those who were arrested during the protests. Secondly, they want a free election for the presidency. The majority of people have one thing in common and that is agreement with those two points. That is the minimum of what people want.”

Source: The Association of Combatant Clerics
Date: Saturday, February 6, 2010

The amazing Islamic Revolution, which succeeded after many ups and downs and numerous incidents on Bahman 22nd, 1357 [February 11, 1979], has shown the greatness and the capacity of God’s religion [Islam] in providing freedom, dignity, and independence to a nation. In addition it has been the symbol of competence for the people with great honors throughout history. May God’s salutation be with this great nation and with its leader and grand founder Imam Khomeini, who was the symbol of this nation’s faith, power, honor, and freedom. We salute the pure spirit of all martyrs to whom this nation owes greatly. May God’s mercy be with the pure hearts of those who made sacrifices, the honorable martyrs’ families, and all men and women who always and devotionally have been and will be present in and play a role in our common fate.

The Islamic revolution was nation’s clear response to the call of their leader, who saw the religion as a mean to free people from despotism and colonialism. In his view religion recognizes people’s right to rule their fate. It demands essential rights, dignity, and respect for all the people who live in this country. In his view a government that is compatible with Islam should not only benefit Muslims, it should belong to all Iranian people regardless of their faith and beliefs. Go to Khordad 88.

Iran has cut links with the British Museum over its failure to lend the Islamic Republic an ancient Persian treasure, Iranian media reported on Saturday, in the latest sign of worsening relations between the two countries.

Iran’s Cultural Heritage Organisation said in October it had set a two-month deadline for the British Museum to allow the public display in Iran of the so-called Cyrus Cylinder, linked to the Persian ruler’s 6th century BC conquest of Babylon.

The museum, which houses a vast collection of world art and artefacts, said in September that plans to hand over the 2,500-year-old clay cylinder had been delayed due to unspecified “practicalities.”

Hamid Baqaie, head of the state Cultural Heritage Organisation, said the museum had failed to meet the deadline, ISNA news agency reported. He said it had offered to deliver the cylinder by July instead but that this was not acceptable.

“The Cultural Heritage Organisation has cut all its relations and cooperation with the British Museum,” he said, adding the move concerned archaeological, exhibition and research cooperation. Go to Reuters.

Liam Fox described the threat posed by Iran as the “single most important issue facing the West” and added that 2010 was the year in which the Islamic state had to be confronted.

Mr Fox said that while military action would be in “no one’s interest”, he maintained that the use of force was an option which “must remain on the table” if Iran developed nuclear weapons.

Defence sources said an attack on Iran would be likely to consist of a missile attack rather than an Iraq-style invasion, with nuclear and uranium enrichment sites being targeted by cruise missiles launched from submarines and aeroplanes.

Britain could play a direct role – the Royal Navy has ships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles and could provide early warning aircraft and tankers for in-flight refuelling for other aircraft taking part in an operation. Go to Telegraph.

Despite the regime’s threats, the Iranian people are determined to stand up for their freedom on Bahman 22 or Feb. 11.  Iran News Digest salutes the brave Iranian people.  May God keep them safe.

.

RFE: Labor Protests Held In Several Iranian Cities

IND: The Greens need to capitalize on this discontent and show the workers a way forward.

A series of labor protests have taken place in several Iranian cities this week, RFE/RL’s Radio Farda reports.

Protests and strikes have been held in recent months over unpaid salaries and other work-related demands, but the past few weeks have seen an exceptional amount of such actions.

About 1,300 workers at a pipe factory in Saveh, about 100 kilometers southwest of Tehran, held a work stoppage for several hours earlier this week after not receiving their paychecks for more than a month.

Some 400 workers at a factory in the western city of Arak held a demonstration this week because many people said they had not been paid in six months.

An estimated 700 workers at the Alborz Tire factory in Eslamshahr, outside of Tehran, also held protests last week over salary delays.

On February 3, 150 municipal workers in the far western city of Andimeshk protested 13 months of salary delays. One protester told RFE/RL: “The police arrested two of the workers but they were released the next day. Four other workers were summoned by authorities and eight others were fired.”

Sadeq Karegar, an Iranian union activist living in Norway, told RFE/RL that unpaid wages are not the only issue driving workers’ unrest. Living conditions are worsening, too, he said.

“It’s a matter of hunger,” Karegar said. “[The workers] either must resign themselves to death, poverty, and hardship or they must resist [and protest]. And it’s obvious that when faced with a choice between life and death, one will choose life.”

Guardian: US dismisses Iranian claims of nuclear agreement

Western officials have disputed claims by Iran’s foreign minister that his country is “approaching a final agreement” in its nuclear programme.

Manouchehr Mottaki told a security conference in Munich yesterday that Iran was “serious” about making progress on a deal agreed in principle last October to swap most of its enriched uranium stockpile for fuel rods to use in nuclear power stations. Governments in Europe and the US fear the stockpile could be refined to make nuclear weapons.

But despite Mottaki’s assurances, the US defence secretary, Robert Gates, today dismissed the idea that a deal was close and said it might be time to push forward with sanctions.

“The reality is they’ve done nothing to assure the international community” or “to stop their progress toward (building) a nuclear weapon,” Gates said.

“And therefore various nations need to think about whether it is time for a different tack.”

Gates, who is in Ankara for talks with the Turkish government, said that in his discussions with Turkey and other allies he had sought to underscore the threat Iran poses to them.  The Washington Post’s coverage of same here.

TB: Mousavi and Martyrdom

Columbia University professor Hamid Dabashi considers Iran’s Green Movement a civil rights struggle. Others contend that there is a revolution under way aimed at radically altering the country’s political landscape. The latter opinion largely rests on the many parallels between today’s protest movement and that of the Iranian Revolution that swept away the monarchy more than thirty years ago.

Eight months after presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and large segments of society decried the June 12th presidential election results as fraudulent and launched a sustained protest movement, countless reasons abound as to why the movement is not yet a bona fide revolution. The focus here is on only one such reason: The ironic impact of the physical presence of the movement’s leadership in Iran, which effectively inhibits Mousavi’s ability to elevate the movement to its political potential.

For as long as Mousavi remains in Iran, it will prevent him–as it did Khomeini half a century ago–from realizing his full leadership potential. He will continue to keep his rhetoric confined to the system parameters, which is a limitation that some of his more radical supporters abhor as they demand the removal of the non-republican governmental institutions.

The Islamic regime will not transfigure Mousavi into a martyr by arresting and trying him for sedition, nor will they exile him so that he can speak freely and escalate his rhetoric to revolutionary heights. By holding him in Iran, subject to interminable threats, chilling statements, and constant harassment, the government ensures that Mousavi and his movement are limited in scope and potential. And although the Green Movement has revealed a highly decentralized organizational model, effective leadership is, nevertheless, critical to its ability to negotiate an outcome that produces dividends, revolutionary or otherwise.

IND: A very interesting analysis but, unfortunately, none of the other opposition activists/leaders who have come abroad have managed thus far to rally the opposition around them, Ganji, Ebadi, Sazegara, etc.  Some say coming abroad actually may be counterproductive because it makes it more difficult to maintain connections with supporters back in Iran.  But things could be different for Mr. Mousavi.

BBC: Iraq election triggers US-Iran power struggle IND: Another example of why a democratic Iran is absolutely critical for America’s success in Iraq.

Preparations for the Iraqi parliamentary elections have been thrown into chaos by a row over whether or not to uphold a ban on hundreds of candidates, because of alleged links to Saddam Hussein’s outlawed Baath Party.

The start date for campaigning has been postponed and the Iraqi parliament will hold an emergency session on Sunday to debate the issue.

The dispute reflects both the sectarian fault-lines within Iraq and geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Amid the multitude of different Arab parties and coalitions competing for seats in this election, it is possible to discern two more or less distinct political directions.

One draws its support broadly from Iraq’s majority Shia population and is to a greater or lesser extent sympathetic to the government in Tehran.

The other relies largely on Sunni Arabs and secularists whose policies range from Iraqi and pan-Arab nationalism to open nostalgia for the relative stability of the Saddam-era.

The roughly 500 politicians at the centre of this row include both Shia and Sunnis.

But the Commission which has drawn up the list is headed by a Shia with close ties to Iran.

The White House is now focused on its timetable for withdrawal: all US combat troops are due to be pulled out by this September in preparation for a full military departure by the end of 2011.

What impact will that have on American influence in Iraq? The answer depends on what kind of government the people elect in March.

Iraq has become a key battleground for geopolitical power between the United States and Iran.

Each side wants the new administration to be sympathetic to its aims. But the continuing tensions that exist between Tehran and Washington may make those aims mutually exclusive.

Reuters: Iran’s police vow no tolerance towards protesters

Iranian police will show no more tolerance towards anti-government protesters, the force’s chief was quoted as saying on Saturday, in a warning to the opposition ahead of possible new demonstrations next week.

“Now that the different dimensions of the sedition are clear, we won’t show any more tolerance,” police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam said, the ILNA news agency reported.

“Police will act firmly to defend the society’s security and those who break the law will be dealt with severely,” he said.

Moghaddam also reiterated a warning against the use of emails and sms messages to spread the word of new protests, making clear police were monitoring such means of communication.

“The new technologies allow us to identify conspirators and those who are violating the law, without having to control all people individually,” he said.

CNN: Report – Iran opens two missile plants

Two new missile production plants opened in Iran on Saturday.

The inauguration of the production lines for the anti-helicopter Qaem missile, and the anti-armor Toofan-5 (Hurricane) missile, came three days after Iran test-launched a rocket capable of carrying a satellite, a launch deemed a “provocative act” by Washington.

The Defense Ministry told Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency that both missiles have “high penetration and destructive powers.”

By mass producing and delivering these modern arms, Iran’s department of defense aims to increase its ground and air defenses, the semi-official Fars news agency reported.

“Toofan 5 is one of the most advanced missiles. It has two warheads which can destroy tanks and other armored vehicles,” Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi told Fars.

The Qaem is a “missile which can destroy targets in the air traveling at low speed and at low altitude, especially assault helicopters,” Vahidi added.

The laser guided anti-helicopter Qaem rocket is designed to resist enemy actions in electronic warfare.

FT: Balli unit settles with US over Iran aircraft

A unit of Balli Group plc, the UK company which claims to be one of the world’s largest privately held commodity traders, pleaded guilty on Friday to criminal charges that it illegally exported a commercial Boeing 747 from the US to Iran.

Under a plea agreement with the Justice Department, Balli Aviation will pay $15m in criminal and civil fines and be placed on corporate probation. The penalty marks one of the largest fines paid for an export violation.

According to its website, Balli Group is headquartered in the UK and has sales exceeding $1bn. It is run by chairman Vahid Alaghband, and joint chief executives Nasser Alaghband and Hossein Adle. Lord Lamont, who served as chancellor of the exchequer under Prime Minister John Major, is named on its website as a non-executive director.

Under the terms of the plea deal, both Balli Aviation and Balli Group were denied export privileges for five years, though the Justice Department said the penalty would be suspended if no more export violations occurred and the groups paid the civil penalty.

According to charges filed in a US district court in Washington, from October 2005 to October 2008, Balli Aviation conspired to export three Boeing 747s from the US to Iran without obtaining a required export license from US government officials. The court document states that the company, through its subsidiary, Blue Sky Companies, purchased the US aircraft with financing it obtained from an Iranian airline. Balli Aviation then violated a Temporary Denial Order issued by the US Commerce Department on March 17, 2008, that prohibited the group from conducting any transaction involving Export Administration Regulations.

Reuters: Iran discovers new oil and gas fields – report

Iran’s oil minister announced on Saturday the discoveries of an oil field and a gas field, estimating the total value of their reserves at $85 billion, a semi-official news agency reported.

Massoud Mirkazemi said the newly-discovered oil field called Soumar was located in the western Kermanshah province.

“This new oil field has reserves of 475 million barrels of oil, of which 70 million barrels are recoverable,” he was quoted as saying by Mehr News Agency.

“If we value the recoverable oil at $70 dollars a barrel, the estimated value of the newly-discovered oil at this field would be $5 billion,” he said.

The gas field called Halgan was located about 70 km north of the Gulf port of Assaluyeh, he said, adding its daily output could reach some 50 million cubic metres over a two-decade period.

“If we reckon the value of every cubic metre of gas at around 30 U.S. cents, the value of the discovered gas in this field will be around $80 billion,” he said, without saying when production might start.

ICHR Iran: A Ferdowsi University student is moved into criminal ward

It is been said that the transfer of this student activist from Ferdowsi University to the ward of dangerous criminals is the result of illegal intimidation to extract televised confessions.

BBC: Q&A: Iran and the nuclear issue

Yesterday (Feb 4th) for the 40th day anniversary of the Bloody Ashura, in which a number of peaceful protestors including Seyyed Ali Mousavi (Mir Hossein Mousavi’s nephew) were killed, a commemoration ceremony was held at Seyyed Ali’s grave under heavy security presence. Plain clothes militia were also watching the events from distance. Later a prayer ceremony was also held at Seyyed Ali’s house; Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard and some prominent political figure were also present and pied their respect. Many of the attendees including the political figures assured the family of Martyr Seyyed Ali Mousavi, in different words, that he and other Green martyrs have not sacrificed their lives in vain and those who committed these horrendous crimes and bloodshed will be brought to justice someday.

Following the new wave of arrests of student activist in the threshold of the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution and the Feb 11th (22 Bahman) rally, the Islamic Assembly of Tehran University Students by issuing a statement strongly condemned the widespread arrests of the student activists. It was also emphasised once again, that those responsible for the brutal attacks on the student dormitories in the events after the election should be investigated and be brought to justice immediately. They also demanded the end to the arrests of the students, releasing all the imprisoned students, easing the pressure put on the universities, faculty members and student organisations and the end to the unjust sentencing.

At the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, members of Tehran City Council visited the family of Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi’s top advisor and son of Martyr Ayatollah Beheshti who played a key role in Islamic Revolution and was killed in a terrorist attack in the early days after the revolution, and comforted them including his young children while getting updated about the situation of Alireza Beheshti. Alireza Beheshti has been detained since the next day after the Bloody Ashura for the second time without any charges and only because he has been a close ally to Mir Hossein Mousavi. He is in a very fragile health condition and has suffered a heart attack while in custody but the authorities deny him being transferred to a hospital outside prison.

Yesterday (Feb 4th) a number of members of the families of political prisoner, who were arrested in the aftermath of the election coup in June, visited Mehdi Karroubi at his home. In this meeting the members of the families of the political prisoners briefly talked about the situation that their loved ones have been in since their arrest and the injustice they have been suffering. In this meeting a number of the families of Mehdi Karroubi’s active campaign staff who also have been detained, were present too. Mehdi Karroubi while comforting the families of political prisoner, strongly condemned the illegal and baseless arrests and detentions of the active political and social figures and demanded their immediate release. He emphasised that these kinds of illegal and irrational actions, similar to what has been done in the fields of economy and foreign policy by Ahmadinejad’s government, will only make the situation worse and has shocked everyone. Karroubi by criticising the efforts in order to link the reformist political activists and human rights activist to opposition groups in exile added that these kinds of false claims will only help give life to these dead organisations! At the end Karroubi invited the families of political prisoners to be patient and strong and prayed to God for prospers and free tomorrow for the country.

On the 40th day anniversary of the Bloody Ashura, we make a vow to the blood of our fellow comrades, who were brutally butchered by the coup government’s forces, that we will continue their Green path till our very last breath  We Are Countless…with special thanks to supporters YouTube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOuRPW7HFDI Go to original article.

Source:  Mousavi FB

Great and proud nation of Iran:

Now that we are on the threshold of 22 Bahman and the anniversary of the victory of the glorious Islamic Revolution led by the Imam, I consider it necessary, while commemorating this day and paying my respects to the martyrs who sought independence and freedom mingled with the Islamic Republic, to raise a few points with you, the rightful possessors of this revolution, system, and country, as a minor servant who had an active presence throughout the ups and downs of this past half century, in the hope that the esteemed officials, especially those who are concerned about the system, would sensibly, justly, fairly, and refraining from the political favor or malice of currents or factions take note. In particular, Mehdi Karroubi, due to his age, is no longer in any condition to alter his behavior for political reasons and to reach worldly post or rank or office. If I were after such a thing, I would have made reclusion my guide and abandoned the wild steed of Iranian politics and spoken no more of the people’s rights and what the realm and the people have suffered and passed my time pleased with the treasury of my memories, at ease and without fanfare and put up for sale my Islamic, revolutionary, and popular accumulation of fifty years, providing myself with an easy life thereby and be respected by the lords of power. But such behavior is far from gallantry and unfit for a Muslim and I consider my life and death to be bound up with Islam, Iran, and the people. I know Iran and the people. My greatest pride is that I have been and will remain a servant of God, a son of Iran, and a soldier of the people. Therefore, I not only consider silence and separation from the people and ignoring the national interest to be unjust, but, based on religious values and the lofty aspirations of the people and the Imam as manifested in the Constitution, I have and will continue to devoted myself to the defense of the people’s rights under the sharia and the law and their legitimate freedoms. This is Mehdi Karroubi’s unshakable pledge to the great people of Iran. I now draw the attention of my dear brothers and sisters to a few important points. See More.

IND: An overview of the Basij forces.

In the months since Iran’s contested June 2009 presidential election, the Basij Resistance Force has emerged as one of the regime’s main pillars of support against the democracy movement. In the long term, however, it is uncertain whether the militia is capable of prevailing in a prolonged fight against a persistent opposition.

Rather than having independent bases, the Basij is physically organized at mosques, government administrative offices, factories, and educational institutions. This and other factors make it impossible to establish precisely how many members the Basij has. Two of the militia’s core components are the so-called “Ashura Brigades” for male members and “al-Zahra Brigades” for female members, established around 1992-1993 to suppress urban uprisings. According to one account, there are 2,500 such brigades with 300-350 armed members each. It is even more difficult to determine how many members joined the Basij for ideological reasons and how many joined for opportunistic reasons — the latter are much more likely to defect.

There are signs that the regime leadership has not been particularly happy with the Basij’s performance. On October 2, Hojjat al-Eslam Hossein Taeb was removed as Basij chief, and on October 5, the militia was formally integrated within the framework of the IRGC Ground Forces, with Brig. Gen. Muhammad Naghdi as the new chief.

Implications

A weak Basij will be a serious problem if the Iranian regime becomes embattled. The regular military would not be able to pick up the slack: besides being politically noninterventionist, it is based in garrisons along the country’s international borders, far from major urban centers. Meanwhile, the Law Enforcement Forces have given a mixed performance in street battles with protesters, and the so-called “pressure groups” (e.g., the Ansar-e Hizballah vigilante organization) are too undisciplined for concerted action. Theoretically, the IRGC could serve as the regime’s backbone at a time of need, but many of its 125,000 enlisted men may be conscripts, raising questions about how they would act if sent on the streets. The last time regular IRGC personnel were ordered to move against demonstrators was in Qazvin in 1994; the unit in question refused to go.

Go to Washington Institute.

CNN: Political prisoners in Iran say they are ‘dark stain’ on regime

Political prisoners issued a blunt statement slamming the Iranian regime for its post-election crackdown, and opposition supporters and security forces clashed at a mosque in southwestern Iran, an opposition Web site reported Friday.

“It is indeed shameful for this system to have so many prisoners of thoughts, ideals and aspirations. The ties between this regime and the people, which had been extended to each and every segment of society, are coming undone,” according to an impassioned letter from political prisoners.

Addressed to “the people of Iran,” the letter said the presence of political prisoners is “a dark stain on the face of this regime” and praised the opposition for its “sustained commitments” that have helped the so-called Green Movement grow, Rahesabz, an opposition Web site said.

Repressive methods used against prisoners, the letter said, will foster more embarrassment for the regime, adding the fate of the regime will be similar to those under “the reigns of Pinochet in Chile, the Colonels in Greece, Franco in Spain, the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran and Saddam Hussein’s tyranny in Iraq.”

“The veils of impervious piety that the regime had put up for itself and the Supreme Leader have now been broken. Those who stand for the violence, treason, lies and terrorism of this regime, are being brushed to the periphery, more and more, with each passing day and fewer people stand up to defend this government,” the letter said.

The letter said that while the prisoners don’t “fear becoming the martyrs of the Green Movement,” independent rights groups should monitor their conditions “in order to ensure the survival of all political prisoners.” It also said that the judiciary in Iran “is but a puppet in the hands of the military-security forces.”

“The situation has become so bad that some of the judges, at the time of sentencing, say: ‘I have issued this sentence for you, based on the request of your interrogators!’”

PBS Charlie Rose: A look at Israel and Iran 02/04/10 (Look for the title and then click on it) Iran and the political revolution within the effort to develop nuclear capability and what it means for the rest of the world, especially the United States, Arab neighbors and Israel. We talk to Ethan Bronner from ‘The New York Times,’ Bret Stephens from the ‘Wall Street Journal’ Jeffrey Goldberg from the ‘Atlantic’ and Abbas Milani from Stanford University.

Guardian: US in line of fire as China toughens up foreign policy IND:  WOW! Are we at a dawn of a new cold war?

China signalled its intent to pursue a more assertive foreign policy, saying “a fifth of mankind” had a right to be heard, and stating its opposition to the west on a range of issues.

The country’s foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, threatened retaliation for American arms sales to Taiwan, and made it clear that China was prepared to stand alone among the permanent members of the UN security council in opposing sanctions against Iran.

He insisted Iran had not closed the door on negotiations over the export of its uranium, and called for patience and “a more flexible, pragmatic and proactive policy” towards talks with Iran.

Speaking at a global security conference in Munich, Yang also rejected western criticism on internet freedoms and China’s role at the Copenhagen global warming summit in December.

He said it was time for China’s voice to be listened to with more respect on the world stage.

“We have one fifth of mankind,” the foreign minister said. “At least we deserve a chance to express our views on how things should be run in the world.”

“We are offering views but we have the modesty to listen to others. That has always been the tradition of China, but I think, we also deserve a hearing of one kind or another. One country, two countries three or four countries can definitely not decide the future of the world.”

China has already privately signalled to the US and its allies that it would oppose any new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme. Hitherto, China has avoided standing alone among the permanent five members of the security council on the Iranian nuclear programme.

This time however, China, has remained adamant even in the face of a clear softening in Russia’s stance. In recent months, Moscow has signalled that it is might be ready to agree to more punitive measures. Its foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, warned todaythat if Iran did not co-operate, the security council would deal with the matter. Lavrov is due to meet his Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki, at the Munich security conference this weekend.

AFP: US to appeal to China on Iran sanctions: Clinton IND:  Persistence is an admirable trait but at what point does persistence become delusional wishful thinking?

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Friday the United States will continue to reach out to China and other partners as it seeks ways to impose sanctions on Iran over its nuclear ambitions.

Clinton issued her remarks after Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi on Thursday rejected calls by the United States and other powers for sanctions against Tehran for its refusal to stop enriching uranium.

“We think it is important that we move now toward looking at what pressure, what sanctions can be brought to bear on the Iranians,” Clinton told reporters after saying Iran had balked at offers to engage in talks over its nuclear plans.

“We’re going to continue to reach out to all of our colleagues in this effort, including, of course, China,” the chief US diplomat said.

Atlantic: A Landmark Statement

In my judgment, the most important event of 2009 was the Green Revolution in Iran. But I think it is important to grasp that it was more than a simple event. It is a continuing process. It is far from over and it is gaining strength.

And yes, I believe it is succeeding. The courage of the Iranian people – especially when compared to the cowardly, self-serving cynicism that courses through the American republic – is indisputable. And next week, we will see their latest battle, against a regime whose legitimacy has gone, whose isolation around the world is deeper than at any time in its history, and whose fate is as sealed as those tyrants in Moscow two decades ago.

BW: U.S. Uses Iran to Globalize Its Defenses, Russia Says

U.S. plans to base a missile-defense system in eastern Europe are a pretext to encroach on Russia’s borders, said Dmitry Rogozin, the Russian envoy to NATO.

“Maybe it’s against Iran, but that same system can be targeted against any other country, including Russia’s strategic nuclear potential,” Rogozin said in an interview on state broadcaster Rossiya 24 today. “The U.S. is using Iran’s actions to globalize its system of missile defense.”

Reuters: Balli unit settles with US over 747 export to Iran

A unit of Britain’s Balli Group Plc pleaded guilty on Friday in a U.S. court to charges it illegally exported Boeing Co (BA.N) 747 aircraft from the United States to Iran, the U.S. Justice Department said on Friday.

The unit, Balli Aviation Ltd, agreed to pay a $2 million criminal fine and be placed on corporate probation for five years, the Justice Department said in a statement.

Balli Aviation and its parent also agreed to pay $15 million in civil penalties in settlements with the U.S. Treasury and Commerce Departments, although $2 million could be waived if there are no further export control violations.

AEI: Iran News Roundup February 5, 2010

Bloomberg: Iran Avalanche Kills 8; 3 Foreigners Among 49 Rescued

Stratfor: Iranian Proxies: An Intricate and Active Web

Mourning Mothers, a group of wives and mothers who have lost their spouses or children during the post-elections protests or whose spouses or children are currently in prison, have issued a statement, objecting to executions of political protesters and execution sentences for several political prisoners, demanding revocation of death sentences for political prisoners. They have issued a warning to Islamic Republic of Iran: “Don’t allow a repeat of the 1980’s catastrophe.” They are referencing mass executions of political dissidents in 1988 during which it is said thousands were executed in Islamic Republic prisons. Islamic Republic authorities have continually maintained silence on these executions.

Mourning Mothers have also demanded release of “prisoners of conscience,” and trials of “those who were responsible for and who ordered their children’s murders.” The statement adds: “We, the Mourning Mothers, who have gathered spontaneously at Laleh Park, other parks, and public buildings over the past seven months to condemn the murders and arrests and demanding an end to these inhumane and illegal actions, are facing our own children’s executions today.” “Who has subjected the mothers to this gradual death, mourning our loved ones?…Should our children’s participation in elections lead to their arrest, torture, rape, murder, and execution?”

According to Mourning Mothers, if such violence against Iranian youth continues, public protests will also increase.

On January 9, 2010, thirty Mourning Mothers who had gathered at Laleh Park were arrested by security forces. The arrests brought widespread condemnation of Iranian government’s opposition and critical political and human rights organizations.

Currently, many post-elections detainees, especially journalists and student activists, are spending time in prisons on charges of heretics (moharebeh), and it seems the authorities wish to intimidate dissidents with threats of execution.

Early on Thursday, January 29, 2010, Arash Rahmanipour and Mohammad Reza Alizamani who are said to have been arrested prior to elections were executed by Revolutionary Courts. The two men were accused of membership in Iran Monarchists Society and actions against national security of Islamic Republic of Iran. The two individuals’ attorneys have stated that their clients were told that if they confessed to the crimes the interrogators told them, they would be released. But their confessions brought them their deaths. Go to ICHR Iran.

Despite the regime’s threats, the Iranian people are determined to stand up for their freedom on Bahman 22 or Feb. 11.  Iran News Digest salutes the brave Iranian people.  May God keep them safe.

Source: The blog of Mr. David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary of the UK

Yet again the eyes of the world are on Iran. Yet again for all the wrong reasons.

1 February marked the start of the 10 Days of Dawn, commemorating the return to Iran of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 and the victory of the Islamic Revolution on 11 February. In a blatant attempt to cow the opposition movement ahead of the 31st  anniversary of the Revolution, the Iranian regime has resorted to a chilling campaign of threats and intimidation in the form of mass arrests, executions and calls for hangings to quell demonstrations. Reports that nine people will be executed imminently in connection with the post election unrest are utterly deplorable.

This in response to peaceful calls for democracy, human rights and fundamental freedoms. These are not western prerogatives, but universal rights to which we are all entitled. We in the international community will continue to speak out in defence of those who are killed, arrested or brutalised in the name of free speech and freedom of expression.  We have a right to do so, and a duty. The people of Iran have legitimate concerns which their government must address.  Such brutality and hateful rhetoric can only serve to further erode whatever remains of the fragile bond of trust between the Iranian regime and its people.

IND:  Thank you, Mr. Miliband.

Current U.N. and U.S. sanctions against Iran have reduced Iran’s economic contact with other nations, weakening the Iranian economy and ordinary Iranians’ standard of living. Broad-based sanctions certainly have amplified the regime’s unpopularity, with economic deprivation fueling public protests. The widespread dissent may, in the long run, bring regime change.  But the current sanctions have not curbed the regime’s internal oppression and international adventurism, including its nuclear program and support of terrorism. This failure has occurred because broad economic sanctions have not directly curtailed the lavish lifestyles of those in power.

Targeted sanctions against individuals and organizations have precedent at the U.N. and in the U.S. Targeting of assets, communications and mobility was deployed successfully against the leadership of al-Qaida in the wake of 9/11. Similar sanctions against political elites have been used in the cases of Serbia, Liberia and Sudan. The threat of such sanctions has proved effective against the Philippines and other nations suspected of money laundering. Such smart sanctions have been proposed by Iran experts as the best way of directly pressuring those in power there. The U.S. administration finally seems to be catching on.

There is yet another mechanism that has held despotic leaders accountable to the world community: international and country-specific criminal indictments for human rights abuse, money laundering and abetting terrorism. Legal actions would add considerably to the arsenal of tools available to the West for restraining Iran’s antagonistic leaders.

If Iran’s leaders fear arrest and trial in U.N. or foreign custody, they will severely curtail their international travels. As their face-to-face contacts with other national leaders decline, so will their influence upon troublesome Third World nations like Syria and Venezuela. Moreover, officially listing specific Iranian leaders as fugitives will diminish their legitimacy within and outside Iran.

For years Iran’s people have been saying that their leaders should be held accountable. They urge the West to freeze the political and religious elites’ assets in foreign banks, cut-off IRGC-owned companies from the global economy, and restrict the despots’ freedom to travel outside Iran. Iranians at home and abroad suggest knowingly that Iran’s leaders will begin to conform to global expectations if internationally-administered justice awaits them.

If Iran’s global menace and domestic violence are to be curbed, then the U.S. and the world will have take on the Iranian leaders directly. Targeting is one key to success; enforcement on economic and legal fronts is the other.

Go to Forbes.

Newsweek: In Iran, Inflation Could Threaten Regime Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues to face protests at home and the possibility of international sanctions abroad, but the biggest threat to his rule is something more banal: inflation. Iran’s official inflation rate has now reached 13.5 percent, but the actual rate could be twice as high. And it looks likely to get worse. Come spring, the government plans to stop subsidizing basic goods and will instead give cash directly to poor families. That plan, as well as Ahmadinejad’s push to give out more loans, will expand the cash supply and likely drive inflation higher still. Efforts to combat rising prices have so far failed. Two weeks ago the Finance Ministry capped daily bank withdrawals at $15,000. According to reports on opposition Web sites, several banks in Tehran and Isfahan were subsequently swamped by desperate customers, and in at least one case police had to be called in.  Political protesters plan a large rally on Feb. 11, the anniversary of the 1979 revolution. If they’re joined by ordinary Iranians fed up with the dismal economy, it may be a case of history repeating itself.

Rooz: Economic Failure of Imports from China As criticism mounts in Iran over the country’s policy of importing non-essential goods from China, and the government’s response has been the announcement that it has curtailed such imports by 40 percent, without giving any detailed statistics, the commander of the para-military Basij force said during a Basij seminar that unemployment remained the most serious problem of the government, adding, “We must not allow our markets to be filled with foreign goods, particularly products from Chinese companies that have hurt our economy.”

Street Journalist: Statement by Italian Trade Unions against executions in Iran CGIL CISL UIL [Italy's 3 major trade union federations] support the struggle of the thousands of workers who have been harshly repressed for having dared to set up independent workers’ unions in the transport, agriculture and education sectors. CGIL CISL UIL invite workers, peace and human rights activists to mobilize immediately on 5th February at 10.30 in front of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Rome, at Via Nomentana 363. During the demonstration signatures will be collected against the death penalty.  Why don’t the American trade unions do the same here?

BW: A Modern B-School—in Tehran Iranian executives figure their homeland needs some good MBAs.  Iran’s existing business schools can’t meet all the country’s needs. They have room for only 500 students, which means too many top applicants get turned away. Many of those who do get MBAs end up leaving the country, contributing to Iran’s brain drain. The curriculum of the existing B-schools doesn’t offer the latest thinking in such subjects as strategy, finance, career development, and succession planning.

AEI: Economy

• Ahmadinejad on live television:

o “The people follow us because they are the best people in history, in the   entire history of man no people as good as the Iranian people have populated planet earth…”
o “This plan [is an economic] reform plan. We must advance all together and we will do so God willing and everyone will see that it is not as they thought…”
o “If we wanted to eradicate the subsidies, [concerns about the reforms] would have be justified but no one speaks about doing away with the subsidies. That will all return to the people, but will do so in a correct way and will be directed into the pockets of the people for the sake of specific projects or for securing welfare of the people, for the sake of production and export, economic and cultural services…”
o “In our country, investment has been restricted because one of the greatest restrictions to investment is the issue of subsidies. If one sector manages to attract subsidies other sectors will remain underdeveloped and no one will invest there. Therefore, in the electricity sector demand is higher than supply, but in other sectors there is either no demand or demand can’t be stimulated even with the greatest stimulants…”
o “We desire to hand out subsidies to everyone with the exception of those who do not volunteer, or are so well off that they do not need subsidies and don’t ask for it. There are indeed eight million people who have not applied for it…”
o “Those with stable salaries such as laborers, public servants, small shopkeepers, peasants and the like will be covered by support and will certainly receive subsidies and there is no reason for concern…”
o “Those who misinform the state about their income level have to return the subsidies…”

• Basij Chief Mohammad-Reza Naghdi: “Our big problem today is unemployment. Jobs must be created. We should not allow our market to retail foreign goods, especially Chinese products which have dealt a blow to our economy.”
• Fresh red meat will be distributed at heavily subsidized prices to labor and public servant cooperatives prior to the March 21st New Year eve.

The government of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be more susceptible to international economic sanctions than at any recent time, according to U.S. officials and Iran specialists.

The factors that lead to their conclusion: Economic problems in Iran, continuing popular opposition to the Iranian government, divisions within the regime leadership and changing geopolitical dynamics in the region.

Iranians have long experience at coping with sanctions, and analysts warn that the pillars of the Ahmadinejad regime, including the Revolutionary Guard Corps, have withstood significant pressures in the past.

But rarely has the government faced a combination of economic challenges like it currently confronts. Chief among them are persistent inflation, unofficially believed to be as high as 20 percent; and high unemployment, especially among those under the age of 30, who make up about two-thirds of the population.

Such problems are widely attributed to economic mismanagement by the Iranian government. While other oil producers enjoyed revenues during recent boom years, Iran’s problems actually got worse, due in large part to the Ahmadinejad government’s penchant for spending money in an effort to consolidate political support.

Reuters: Iran using tricks on nuclear program: German ForMin Iran has been using delaying tactics instead of taking action to resolve the dispute over its nuclear program, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said on Friday. “For the past two years Iran has repeatedly bluffed and played tricks,” Westerwelle said. “It has played for time and of course we in the international community cannot accept a nuclear-armed Iran.”

WP: China could block sanctions against Iran China on Thursday threw a roadblock in the path of a U.S.-led push for sanctions against Iran, saying that it is important to continue negotiations as long as Iran appears willing to consider a deal to give up some of its enriched uranium. “To talk about sanctions at the moment will complicate the situation and might stand in the way of finding a diplomatic solution,” Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said at a conference in Paris. U.S. officials had initially hoped they could push through a U.N. sanctions resolution this month or next, but China’s statement Thursday suggests that it may take months of haggling to achieve that goal.  Another example highlighting the futility of hoping that the Chinese or the Russians for that matter would ever join in the type of sanctions that would really hurt the regime.  Stop with the feel-good measures already.

WSJ: Why Antagonize China? While attempting to appease a long list of utterly unappeasable foes—Iran, North Korea, Hamas, Hezbollah, and even Hugo Chávez—today the U.S. treats China, perhaps our most crucial economic partner, as an adversary because it defies us on global warming, dollar devaluation, and Internet policy.

A foreign policy of serious people at a time of crisis will recognize that the current Chinese regime is the best we can expect from that country. The Chinese revitalization of Asian capitalism remains the most important positive event in the world in the last 30 years. Not only did it release a billion people from penury and oppression but it transformed China from a communist enemy of the U.S. into a now indispensable capitalist partner. It is ironic that liberals who once welcomed appeasement of the monstrous regime of Mao Zedong now become openly bellicose at various murky incidents of Internet hacking.

WP: Iran last minute addition to Munich security event MUNICH — Iran’s foreign minister was added at the last minute Friday to the Munich Security Conference, joining the prestigious gathering of the world’s top defense officials amid signs Tehran is trying to revive talks on the country’s nuclear program.

CSM: What’s behind renewed war jitters in Israel, Lebanon? The saber-rattling between Israel and Lebanon – which Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman extended to Syria – has created an atmosphere similar to the one that preceded Israel’s 1982 invasion.  The other potential trigger factor is related to developments in Iran. A move by Israel or the West to attack Iranian nuclear facilities could result in a backlash along the Lebanon-Israel border, or a preemptive strike by Israel against Hezbollah. Some analysts suggest that Iranian leaders may seek to ignite a confrontation with Israel as a means of deflating mounting internal pressure against the regime in Tehran. While Hezbollah is ideologically and financially committed to Iran, the group’s leaders also are sensitive to the interests of their Lebanese Shiite support base, which is still recovering from the 2006 war and would not relish more destruction being visited on their families, homes and livelihoods.

RFE: U.S.: Iran, Not Russia, Drives Revamped Missile Plan The United States is offering assurances that a new missile-defense plan that would involve the deployment of interceptor missiles in Romania is not aimed against Russia but against a potential threat from Iran.  Russia has not yet made any official comment on the plan, announced on February 4.

Times UK: Please forgive me, begs British woman facing lashes over ‘subversion’ in Iran A British national has begged forgiveness from an Iranian revolutionary court after being put on trial in Tehran for subversive activities, Iranian websites reported yesterday.  An unidentified woman, 24, the daughter of a British mother and Iranian father, has admitted some of the charges against her including encouraging and attending demonstrations, consorting with foreigners and drinking alcohol, government and opposition websites said.

Fox: What You Need to Know About Iran What a joke – Glenn Beck is going to tell us what we need to know about Iran…

AOL TV: Jon Stewart Talks Sarah Palin, Iran on ‘The O’Reilly Factor’ (VIDEO)

LA Times: Seized North Korea arms cache still a mystery The weaponry was impounded nearly two months ago in Thailand, and nationals of several countries are involved. Now some in the Thai government are worried about the mounting costs in the case.

Time: Iran Nukes Deal: What if Ahmadinejad Is Serious? More wishful thinking…

Fatemeh Simin Motamed-Arya , 49, is one of Iran’s best known actresses. She is also an active campaigner for the green movement that’s currently rocking Iran. Pamela Philipose spoke to her in New Delhi:

What is the present status of Iranian women?
I think one simple example could answer your question: More than 70 per cent of students in universities in Iran today are women. This shows the tremendous desire of the ordinary woman to realise her full potential. You can understand then why they are so active in Iranian society.

How do you see yourself as an artiste and as a woman in Iranian society today?
First, i feel i am an artiste. I am not a woman, not a man, i am an artiste. To my mind, my work is the only material i have to show the world that i am human. At the same time, even though i see myself as an intellectual and working woman, i also want to claim my traditional self. Because i believe that in being a good neighbour, or a good daughter to my father, i am helping society. In being a good mother, i can help my son understand his world better and enable him to grow up with a greater knowledge of the world. So although i am not a traditional person, there are many traditional concerns i have. I try to combine the modern and the traditional because i believe a tree cannot grow if it is not connected to the soil by its roots.

How united is this opposition?
Opposition leader, Mirhossein Mousavi, made the colour green a symbol of the resistance to Ahmadinejad’s rule. Now there is a huge chain, a great wave of green. This is a movement for the freedom of the people. It is a movement that is uniting the very poor and the very rich. Iranians living all over the world have come forward to support this colour.

Go to original article.

For the past two decades, the UCLA Film & Television Archive has been presenting the preeminent in Iranian art-house cinema — highly personal, moving, contentious and even controversial films dealing with day-to-day life, social mores, religion and war.

Searing, haunting and often disturbing, these films offer insight into a troubled country that is largely known internationally only from reports in newspapers and on news channels.

The “20th Annual Celebration of Iranian Cinema,” which opens Friday at the Billy Wilder, includes dramatic features, shorts and documentaries. Go to LA Times.

United We Stand … United for Free Iran … We Are Countless … with special thanks to supporters Worldwide United for 22 Bahman /

On the 40th day anniversary of the Bloody Ashura, we make a vow to the blood of our fellow comrades, who were brutally butchered by the coup government’s forces, that we will continue their Green path till our very last breath….We Are Countless…with special thanks to supporters YouTube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOuRPW7HFDI

Fellow citizen! Do not deny your presence… We Are Countless … with special thanks to supporters  YouTube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7GU6JpniWY

Vigil at the UN for Human Rights in Iran: The event will take place on February 11, the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, coinciding with major protests expected in various Iranian cities.

Last night (Feb 3rd) a group of families of the martyrs of Iran-Iraq war while holding the pictures of their martyred loved ones participated in religious ceremony that was held in Qoba mosque. Qoba mosque is located in Shiraz (central Iran) where Grand Ayatollah Dastgheyb (a pro-Green movement senior religious Marja and a member of the Assembly of Experts) is the Imam and usually holds sermons. But after the evening prayer and the sermons (by Torabiyan) in criticising the tensions created in the mosque in the previous nights by hardliner Basij and plain clothes militia, once again the hardliner Basijis started chanting slogans in support for the supreme leader and against the reformist figures including Grand Ayatollah Dastgheyb. This made the followers of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheyb to react and chant slogans in support for their Imam and Marja. Since the number of the Basijis were comparably smaller than the number of the families of martyrs and followers of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheyb their voice was lost in the loud chants of the people. This made them angry such that they started throwing stones at people, beating them and vandalising without showing any respect for the sanctity of the mosque which in Muslim culture is seen as the sanctuary and a house of God! Due to these events many people were injured and there were some damages made to the building. These clashes continued till late night, when Grand Ayatollah Dastgheyb in a phone message to his follower asked them to stay calm and patient while being cautions and document the injuries and damages so that at least they can press charges against this barbaric behaviour of the Basijis. YouTube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcJ4F9VsKQ4

In the absence of free media and press; as well as due to all the communication restrictions and censorships imposed by the coup government, Green people of Iran use public walls to write Green slogans in protest to the coup government and in solidarity with each other and also to spread …the word about the next major protest. They also use homemade pamphlets to distribute Green leaders’ interviews and statements and also invite each other to the next major protest which in this case is the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on Feb 11th (22 Bahman)  Pics here. Source: http://www.divarnevis.com/

Ironically while the son of Martyr Ayatoll…ah Beheshti, Alireza Beheshti, is being illegally imprisoned by the coup government, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, based on the tradition, visited the grave of Martyr Ayatollah Beheshti on the first day of the ceremonies for the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution!  Ayatollah Beheshti was one of the key figures during the revolution who founded the judiciary system after the Islamic Revolution; he was martyred in a terrorist bomb plot in the early days after the revolution. These days his son, Alireza Beheshti, is being detained only because he is the top advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi!

Last night (Feb 3rd) a group of families of the martyrs of Iran-Iraq war while holding the pictures of their martyred loved ones participated in religious ceremony that was held in Qoba mosque. Qoba mosque is located in Shiraz (central Iran) where Grand Ayatollah Dastgheyb (a pro-Green movement senior religious Marja and a member of the Assembly of Experts) is the Imam and usually holds sermons. But after the evening prayer and the sermons (by Torabiyan) in criticising the tensions created in the mosque in the previous nights by hardliner Basij and plain clothes militia, once again the hardliner Basijis started chanting slogans in support for the supreme leader and against the reformist figures including Grand Ayatollah Dastgheyb. This made the followers of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheyb to react and chant slogans in support for their Imam and Marja. Since the number of the Basijis were comparably smaller than the number of the families of martyrs and followers of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheyb their voice was lost in the loud chants of the people. This made them angry such that they started throwing stones at people, beating them and vandalising without showing any respect for the sanctity of the mosque which in Muslim culture is seen as the sanctuary and a house of God! Due to these events many people were injured and there were some damages made to the building. These clashes continued till late night, when Grand Ayatollah Dastgheyb in a phone message to his follower asked them to stay calm and patient while being cautions and document the injuries and damages so that at least they can press charges against this barbaric behaviour of the Basijis.

As it gets closer to Feb 11th (22 Bahman), the 31 anniversary of the Islamic Revolution when Green Movement is planning to seize the opportunity and show its protest to the coup government once again by participation in a huge rally, the arrests of and pressure on students activists escalates. While everyday there are sad news regarding those who have been detained, in the past few days a new wave of arrests of student activists has started. So far in the past few days 15 former and current student activists have been arrested throughout the country.

O martyr! You are the sun that is shining … You live in our hearts forever … We will continue you Green path… We Are Countless…with special thanks to supporters YouTube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jjgp2bT8Deo

During the past week ten students of Iran Science and Technology University (Tehran), who some of them were arrested in the Bloody Ashura and some in the gathering held in the university days after and in protest to the brutal crackdown on Bloody Ashura, were released from prison on bail.

The Council of Reformist Front Coordination (consisting of reformist major parties and groups) by issuing a statement invited everyone to participate in Feb 11th (22 Bahman) rallies for the 31st anniversary of the …Islamic Revolution while carrying Green symbols. In this statement that is addressed to the people it reads: “On Feb 11th (22 Bahman) we will come with Green symbols to announce that it is a pity that those short-minded and resentful pathetic individuals who are sitting on the top consider anyone who objects to them or disagrees with them as an agent of foreigner or someone who was tricked and wants to overthrow the system and consider any criticism as destruction. [We will come with Green symbols to announce that] the capacity of the Islamic Revolution and its prosperity is in the multiplicity of thoughts and ideas and the inevitable fate of dictatorship is the destruction of the country. We will come so that with our loud cries, get our clear voices to friends, rivals and enemies that the Green Movement, as the prominent figures of the revolution such as Khatami, Mousavi and Karroubi have [always] reinstated, is the defender of independence [of the country] and does not need the intervention and support of the foreigners and by relying on the God given power of the nation does not hesitate from any efforts in order to restore and preserve the values, execute the law, free the nation, honour the religion and rescue the society.”

What if Iran’s hardline leadership emerges from the current confrontations at home strengthened and emboldened? If so, the nuclear issue will be back with a vengeance. And three recent war games focused on the Iranian nuclear weapons issue suggest that the prospects for halting the regime’s progress toward nuclear weapons are not good.

Go to original article.

IND:  Hate to agree with Ahmadinejad on anything, but the government is right about cutting back on the subsidies.  They are not sustainable and are undermining  Iran’s economy.  Nevertheless, the government has guts to cut them back – especially at such a critical juncture.  Right or wrong, hopefully, future historians will point to this move as the straw that broke the regime’s back by tilting the working classes towards the Greens.

Iran’s regime is risking further unpopularity by preparing to cut the official subsidies holding down the prices of energy and basic commodities.

The government says the annual cost of energy subsidies alone total about $100bn (£63bn, €72bn). Iranians can buy a litre of petrol for only 10 cents, less than half the price of the same amount of mineral water.

But a new law means the government has to start cutting subsidies by April at the latest.

The prices of petrol, water, electricity, gas and other essential commodities such as wheat, sugar and rice, will all rise to international levels over the next five years.

Many Iranians consider cheap energy and food their birthrights because their country sits on the world’s second largest oil and gas reserves. Dropping subsidies might deepen the regime’s unpopularity at a time when the opposition Green Movement is still able to hold frequent protests against the disputed re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad as president last year.

The unrest has largely been led by the middle classes. But analysts believe that the plan to cut subsidies might widen the Green Movement’s support to include the working classes.

Mir-Hossein Moussavi, the opposition leader, has urged his supporters to focus on economic problems, rather than political grievances, to win over the poorer segments of society.

The industrial sector is already working at only half capacity: the additional costs imposed by the removal of subsidies might prove to be crippling.

“Many small and medium businesses would stop when the subsidies are cut,” said a senior businessman. Issa Kalantari, a former agriculture minister told the Financial Times that the “subsidies plan would be a point-blank shot to the agricultural sector which would be hit the most”.

But the government argues that the cost of subsidies is unsustainable and they have encouraged domestic consumption to get out of control.

If Iranians use their oil and gas at the present level for another decade, there will be nothing left to export, depriving the country of its main source of income.

The government is supposed to cushion the blow by giving cash to the most vulnerable people. The idea is to help the poor through direct grants, instead of blanket subsidies.

This approach, argued Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, would eradicate poverty in the next three years. Many economists support the cancelling of subsidies as a significant move towards a free market economy.

But they are concerned about the government’s ability to implement the plan and fear the result could be more economic damage.

The official inflation and unemployment rates stand at 13.5 and 12 per cent respectively but economists said the real figures were much higher. Najib Hosseini, an MP, predicted that inflation would rise to 40 per cent when the subsidies start to be reduced. Go to Financial Times.

High inflation has forced Iran’s government to enact an emergency currency reform, and new geopolitical factors could make an international sanctions regime more effective. One example: A less hospitable environment in the emirate of Dubai, long an important trading center for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its affiliated businesses. Go to NPR.

There are two stories about Iran. The more familiar is the confrontation with the west over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. The more important may be the rising domestic opposition to President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad. The puzzle is to work out how the two connect.

A mood among western officials – with the exception of Israelis – that they have more time than they thought. Dennis Blair, the director of US National Intelligence, struck a low-key note in testimony to the Senate. Iran, he said, “is technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon in the next few years if it chooses to do so”. He did not sound as if the US expects Iran to have a bomb by the day after tomorrow.

The other change, though, mirrors the tumultuous events on the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities. The scale and determination of the opposition that grew from last year’s rigged presidential elections have surprised the US and its allies. What some thought a spontaneous outburst of popular anger at the illegimitacy of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s re-election has turned into a much broader democratic uprising.

I caught a flavour of the dilemma by listening in this week on a private discussion among a group of experts – many with family or other links in Iran – assembled in London by Carnegie Europe, the Brussels-based think-tank sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment.

There was broad agreement that Iran’s Green Movement, which will take to the streets again next week on the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, had holed the regime below the waterline. Neither Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, nor Mr Ahmadi-Nejad could ever fully recover their authority. Yet no one in the group could be sure as to how long the regime might yet stay afloat. The present power structure could be swept away within a year – in cold war parlance, we could be at the beginning of 1989. On the other hand no one should underestimate the ruthless resolve of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

As to the west’s response, the US and European governments should be more outspoken in support for fundamental democratic and human rights in Iran; but recognise that overt foreign backing for the opposition movement would be turned against it by the regime. Nor would it be sensible for any new sanctions to punish ordinary Iranians by, say, blocking imports of refined fuel. Beyond that? There are no easy answers. Let’s hope those engineers in Natanz keep on messing things up. Go to Financial Times.